Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[ForLong]

Ackman's model:
Net Income 2015 actual @ 60bps G-fee $17.3 bn
Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends $2 bn
Net Income to Common $15.3 bn
Diluted Shares (FNMA+FMCC) 8.96 bn
EPS $1.71
P/E Multiple 14
Future Value of the GSEs per Share $23.9
Multiple of Current Share Price Avg 6.4
Illustrative Future Value $214.2 bn
Future Value of Treasury Warrants 79.9% $171.1 bn

Net Income Estimate @ 80bps G-fee $23.1 bn
Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends $2 bn
Net Income to Common $21.1 bn
Diluted Shares (FNMA+FMCC) 8.96 bn
EPS $2.35
P/E Multiple 15
Future Value of the GSEs per Share $35.3
Multiple of Current Share Price Avg 9.5
Illustrative Future Value $316.5 bn
Future Value of Treasury Warrants 79.9% $252.9 bn

Net Income Estimate @ 100bps G-fee $28.9 bn
Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends $2 bn
Net Income to Common $26.9 bn
Diluted Shares (FNMA+FMCC) 8.96 bn
EPS $3.00
P/E Multiple 16
Future Value of the GSEs per Share $48.0
Multiple of Current Share Price Avg 12.9
Illustrative Future Value $430.4 bn
Future Value of Treasury Warrants 79.9% $343.9 bn

Modification - WITHOUT Warrants
Net Income Estimate @ 60bps G-fee $17.3 bn
Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends $2 bn
Net Income to Common $15.3 bn
Diluted Shares (FNMA+FMCC) 1.81 bn
EPS $8.45
P/E Multiple 14
Future Value of the GSEs per Share $118.3
Multiple of Current Share Price Avg 31.9

Net Income Estimate @ 80bps G-fee $23.1 bn
Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends $2 bn
Net Income to Common $21.1 bn
Diluted Shares (FNMA+FMCC) 1.81 bn
EPS $11.86
P/E Multiple 15
Future Value of the GSEs per Share $174.9
Multiple of Current Share Price Avg 47.1

Net Income Estimate @ 100bps G-fee $28.9 bn
Less: Junior Preferred Stock Dividends $2 bn
Net Income to Common $26.9 bn
Diluted Shares (FNMA+FMCC) 1.81 bn
EPS $14.86
P/E Multiple 16
Future Value of the GSEs per Share $237.8
Multiple of Current Share Price Avg 64.1