I think you have it right. At the price today, I think it might be fairly valued without news or other events one way or the other. Often I'll pay fair value or a bit above just because of one thing --- if you wait for the event, you won't be able to buy (or sell) the shares once that event is announced.
Question is, when or if there will be such a move is something we can only guess at.
With things bottoming out, I would hope that they would move quickly while there is still blood in the oil patch. I would think that management here realizes that, and I hope they can find good deals, hopefully sooner than any later. Anything that drops from the trees is a gift I think, but I've been wrong before, but I've also had some fantastic home runs too :)