Tuesday, November 29, 2016 9:45:01 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/28 2016 EOD
Some minor improvements, but with conflicting signals, leaves me still bearish but slightly less so as the consolidation continues.
The low volume, one of the few glimmers of hope that we won't continue lower, maybe be an artifact of the holiday weekend. For this reason I would wait before letting any ebullience creep into your thinking.
As suggested off and on over the last month or so, the shorters are being quite aggressive, showing a 26% increase in short interest. Presuming that pressure is still occurring we expect continued difficulty in obtaining any price appreciation sans a very significant catalyst.
Today was a typical open "high", flat, drop, flat, recover upward (making new high though), drop (very little preceding "flat), flat, drop more, and finally hit the common extremely low/no-volume rise into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:39 opened the day with a 1,036 sell for $0.9010 & $0.9010 x 15K, $0.90 x 500, $0.91 x 342 and $0.9092 x 3,658. B/a at 9:30 was 300:3.8K $0.90/$0.91, 9:31 500:3.7K $0.9002:$0.91. Then came 9:32's 100 $0.91, 9:33's 260 $0.9086, 9:36's 180 $0.9051, 9:36's b/a 250:2.8K $0.9050/$0.91, 9:37's 100 $0.9050.
That kicked off extremely low/no-volume $0.9050/99. B/a at 9:38 was 150:100 $0.9050/71, 9:49 900:100 $0.9001/$0.9099, 10:02 100:2.9K $0.9019/$0.91.
At 10:10 range expanded to $0.9050/$0.91. B/a at 10:13 was 100:2.7K $0.9008/$0.91, 10:32 200:700 $0.9027/99. The period ended on 10:39's 342 $0.9041.
10:40-11:25 B/a at 10:48 was 300:700 $0.9027/99. After twenty no-trades minutes, price began a fall on 11:00's 100 $0.9027. B/a at 11:02 was 100:1.2K $0.9022/$0.9098. Then trade hit 11:05's 200 $0.89, 11:17's b/a of 1.2K:2.3K $0.8900/87, 11:18's 10.8K $0.89->$0.88. The period ended on 11:25's 3.8K $0.8891->$0.88->$0.8703->$0.8899->$0.89->$0.8700/1, leaving b/a at 250:1.3K $0.8800/99.
11:26-12:36, after three no-trades minutes, began a few minutes of very low-volume $0.87/$0.8901 after 11:29's 596 $0.8888. B/a at 11:33 was 300:600 $0.8701/$0.89. Then 11:34's 100 $0.8814 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8702/$0.8901, with rising lows. B/a at 11:51 was 700:500 $0.8704/$0.8901, 11:57 600:300 $0.8704/$0.8835 and range narrowed and dropped, again extremely low/no-volume, to $0.8704/$0.8835. B/a at 12:03 was 900:400 $0.8704/$0.8835, 12:12 800:1.8K $0.8740/$0.8834, 12:19 300:2K $0.8750/$0.8834. Range narrowed again to $0.8755/6 at 12:29. B/a at 12:33 was 300:300 $0.8755/61s. The period ended on 12:36's 1.7K $0.8756->$0.8757.
12:37-12:53 began began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 12:37's 200 $0.895, hitting 12:47's 300 $0.892/$0.90, 12:47's b/a 300:1.5K $0.8900/99, 12:49's 100 $0.9094, and began extremely low/no-volume $0.8989/$0.9094. The period ended on 12:53's 100 $0.9094.
12:54-13:43 B/a at 13:00 was 100:400 $0.8910/$0.9099. After 12 no-trades minutes, extremely low/no-volume $0.8900/99 began on 13:06's 200 $0.8900/1. B/a at 13:18 was 500:400 $0.88/$0.8990, 13:24 1.5K:100 $0.8880/$0.8991, 13:30 300:1K $0.8880/99. The period ended on 13:43's 100 $0.8999.
13:44-14:14, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8744 on 13:44's 3.1K $0.8744. B/a at 13:47 was 300:400 $0.8880/98. Range moved to $0.8758/$0.89 at 13:52. B/a at 14:02 was 334:1.6K $0.8783/$0.89. Range went $0.8783/4 at 14:01. The period ended on 14:14's 120 $0.8899.
14:15-16:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8841/99 on 14:15's 350 $0.8865. B/a at 14:17 was 2.1K:1.9K $0.8841/99, 14:32 2.1K:600 $0.8841/97, 14:47 1.5K:500 $0.8880/97, 15:02 1.6K:600 $0.8841/96, 15:17 1.6k:1k $0.8841/96 (bots jiggling the offer), 15:32 1.6K:600 $0.8841/73, 15:47 1.5K:400 $0.8841/73. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.1K $0.8803/00/03/00/$0.8900 and 16:00's 434 buy for $0.8880.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 2 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 20,100, 24.95% of day's volume, with a $0.8957 VWAP. The count is quite low but the percentage of day's volume is right in the ballpark due to one "larger larger trade". Even considering the low volume, this is an anemic showing.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart yesterday's { ... volume around triple yesterday's combined with a high above the $0.94/5 resistance, a low below a 50% retrace of the recent leg up, and a close below yesterday's suggest growing weakness } was apparently on the mark as VWAP fell almost 1% on greatly reduced volume. Let's hope volume continues falling until we see a bottom formed in hopes we don't go for the Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace or the 100% re-trace down to $0.75.
Using the VWAP, the move suggested over the last few days by the converging experimental 13-period Bolling band seems to be under way.1s
There is hope due to the lower volume that we won't continue lower though. Reducing volume suggests lack of strength in the downward move. However, considering the latest short interest report that may be a vain hope,
I've made a trial adjustment to the rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) to use yesterday's low as a touch point. I say trial because that leaves only the origin and following day and yesterday's low as touch points. Theoretically that's enough to confirm but the origin and first touch point are two consecutive days, which could be considered as one. Another touch point would be needed for me to consider the line a confirmed (now) potential support.
On my one-year chart all the SMA's are now descending. The 10-day is still above the 20-day for the fifth day. If we hold here the 10-day will fall nine more days and the 20-day will begin to rise. The 50 and 200-day SMA will continue falling.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R and ADX-related all weakening. Improvement occurred in accumulation/distribution (marginally) and full stochastic. All oscillators were below neutral.
Today improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and full stochastic. Weakening was seen in the rest of the oscillators. All are still below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8790 and $0.9568 ($0.8735 and $0.9599 yesterday), continue converging, but barely now. If price trend continues the limits should stop converging shortly and likely begin diverging.
All in, only the low volume, suggesting no strength in the downward move, is a potential positive. However, it may be a "hangover" from the holiday weekend so I wouldn't put any faith in it at all - only the low volume, suggesting no strength in the downward move, is a potential positive. However, it may be a "hangover" from the holiday weekend so I wouldn't put any faith in it at all.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but short percentage moved to the low end of my desired range (needs re-check), a good sign. It was offset though by the buy percentage remaining below the level suggesting possible appreciation - short or long-term.
The spread contracted big-time and is near the range where we might expect consolidation to continue. It needs just a little more "shrinkage" to get there. For now it's still wide enough to suggest more near-term weakening, although that s may begin to abate.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held deteriorated from 15 negatives and 9 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 10/24 is -$0.1877, -17.40%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7208%, -0.6795%, -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, and -1.4743%.
All in, not as negative as recently but still only hints that VWAP may stop descending. I'll go a little less bearish, but not quite back to "mild", during this consolidation.
Bill
Some minor improvements, but with conflicting signals, leaves me still bearish but slightly less so as the consolidation continues.
The low volume, one of the few glimmers of hope that we won't continue lower, maybe be an artifact of the holiday weekend. For this reason I would wait before letting any ebullience creep into your thinking.
As suggested off and on over the last month or so, the shorters are being quite aggressive, showing a 26% increase in short interest. Presuming that pressure is still occurring we expect continued difficulty in obtaining any price appreciation sans a very significant catalyst.
Today was a typical open "high", flat, drop, flat, recover upward (making new high though), drop (very little preceding "flat), flat, drop more, and finally hit the common extremely low/no-volume rise into the close.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:39 opened the day with a 1,036 sell for $0.9010 & $0.9010 x 15K, $0.90 x 500, $0.91 x 342 and $0.9092 x 3,658. B/a at 9:30 was 300:3.8K $0.90/$0.91, 9:31 500:3.7K $0.9002:$0.91. Then came 9:32's 100 $0.91, 9:33's 260 $0.9086, 9:36's 180 $0.9051, 9:36's b/a 250:2.8K $0.9050/$0.91, 9:37's 100 $0.9050.
That kicked off extremely low/no-volume $0.9050/99. B/a at 9:38 was 150:100 $0.9050/71, 9:49 900:100 $0.9001/$0.9099, 10:02 100:2.9K $0.9019/$0.91.
At 10:10 range expanded to $0.9050/$0.91. B/a at 10:13 was 100:2.7K $0.9008/$0.91, 10:32 200:700 $0.9027/99. The period ended on 10:39's 342 $0.9041.
10:40-11:25 B/a at 10:48 was 300:700 $0.9027/99. After twenty no-trades minutes, price began a fall on 11:00's 100 $0.9027. B/a at 11:02 was 100:1.2K $0.9022/$0.9098. Then trade hit 11:05's 200 $0.89, 11:17's b/a of 1.2K:2.3K $0.8900/87, 11:18's 10.8K $0.89->$0.88. The period ended on 11:25's 3.8K $0.8891->$0.88->$0.8703->$0.8899->$0.89->$0.8700/1, leaving b/a at 250:1.3K $0.8800/99.
11:26-12:36, after three no-trades minutes, began a few minutes of very low-volume $0.87/$0.8901 after 11:29's 596 $0.8888. B/a at 11:33 was 300:600 $0.8701/$0.89. Then 11:34's 100 $0.8814 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8702/$0.8901, with rising lows. B/a at 11:51 was 700:500 $0.8704/$0.8901, 11:57 600:300 $0.8704/$0.8835 and range narrowed and dropped, again extremely low/no-volume, to $0.8704/$0.8835. B/a at 12:03 was 900:400 $0.8704/$0.8835, 12:12 800:1.8K $0.8740/$0.8834, 12:19 300:2K $0.8750/$0.8834. Range narrowed again to $0.8755/6 at 12:29. B/a at 12:33 was 300:300 $0.8755/61s. The period ended on 12:36's 1.7K $0.8756->$0.8757.
12:37-12:53 began began an extremely low/no-volume rise on 12:37's 200 $0.895, hitting 12:47's 300 $0.892/$0.90, 12:47's b/a 300:1.5K $0.8900/99, 12:49's 100 $0.9094, and began extremely low/no-volume $0.8989/$0.9094. The period ended on 12:53's 100 $0.9094.
12:54-13:43 B/a at 13:00 was 100:400 $0.8910/$0.9099. After 12 no-trades minutes, extremely low/no-volume $0.8900/99 began on 13:06's 200 $0.8900/1. B/a at 13:18 was 500:400 $0.88/$0.8990, 13:24 1.5K:100 $0.8880/$0.8991, 13:30 300:1K $0.8880/99. The period ended on 13:43's 100 $0.8999.
13:44-14:14, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.8744 on 13:44's 3.1K $0.8744. B/a at 13:47 was 300:400 $0.8880/98. Range moved to $0.8758/$0.89 at 13:52. B/a at 14:02 was 334:1.6K $0.8783/$0.89. Range went $0.8783/4 at 14:01. The period ended on 14:14's 120 $0.8899.
14:15-16:00 began extremely low/no-volume $0.8841/99 on 14:15's 350 $0.8865. B/a at 14:17 was 2.1K:1.9K $0.8841/99, 14:32 2.1K:600 $0.8841/97, 14:47 1.5K:500 $0.8880/97, 15:02 1.6K:600 $0.8841/96, 15:17 1.6k:1k $0.8841/96 (bots jiggling the offer), 15:32 1.6K:600 $0.8841/73, 15:47 1.5K:400 $0.8841/73. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.1K $0.8803/00/03/00/$0.8900 and 16:00's 434 buy for $0.8880.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 2 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 20,100, 24.95% of day's volume, with a $0.8957 VWAP. The count is quite low but the percentage of day's volume is right in the ballpark due to one "larger larger trade". Even considering the low volume, this is an anemic showing.
Looking quite typical - early higher VWAPs, volume but weak buy percentages followed by lower VWAP, rising buy percentages and weaker volume. Watching intra-day it looks quite like what we've seen that I believe is manipulation, and/or a battle between warrant holders and/or MMs trying to get price up and shorters. See the short interest report linked above.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:39 26308 $0.9000 $0.9100 $23,769.83 $0.9035 32.66% 25.13% Incl 09:30:02 0.9010 15000
11:25 19308 $0.8700 $0.9092 $17,108.36 $0.8861 23.97% 26.79% Incl 11:18:42 0.8800 5100
12:53 12555 $0.8700 $0.9094 $11,095.13 $0.8837 15.59% 39.25%
13:43 2400 $0.8880 $0.8990 $2,136.05 $0.8900 2.98% 39.68%
14:14 5225 $0.8744 $0.8900 $4,579.85 $0.8765 6.49% 37.01%
16:00 12591 $0.8800 $0.8900 $11,168.31 $0.8870 15.63% 39.89%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Ignore that ope as I believe it's just the usual attempt to draw in unsuspecting traders so they can be scalped. Everything else shows the true story, likely due to shorters continuing to attack the symbol.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.33% 4.82% -4.21% -2.42% -78.89%
Prior -0.11% -5.84% 2.54% -0.98% 209.52%
On my minimal chart yesterday's { ... volume around triple yesterday's combined with a high above the $0.94/5 resistance, a low below a 50% retrace of the recent leg up, and a close below yesterday's suggest growing weakness } was apparently on the mark as VWAP fell almost 1% on greatly reduced volume. Let's hope volume continues falling until we see a bottom formed in hopes we don't go for the Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace or the 100% re-trace down to $0.75.
Using the VWAP, the move suggested over the last few days by the converging experimental 13-period Bolling band seems to be under way.1s
There is hope due to the lower volume that we won't continue lower though. Reducing volume suggests lack of strength in the downward move. However, considering the latest short interest report that may be a vain hope,
I've made a trial adjustment to the rising triangle's (lower right orange lines) to use yesterday's low as a touch point. I say trial because that leaves only the origin and following day and yesterday's low as touch points. Theoretically that's enough to confirm but the origin and first touch point are two consecutive days, which could be considered as one. Another touch point would be needed for me to consider the line a confirmed (now) potential support.
On my one-year chart all the SMA's are now descending. The 10-day is still above the 20-day for the fifth day. If we hold here the 10-day will fall nine more days and the 20-day will begin to rise. The 50 and 200-day SMA will continue falling.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R and ADX-related all weakening. Improvement occurred in accumulation/distribution (marginally) and full stochastic. All oscillators were below neutral.
Today improvement occurred in MFI (untrusted by me), momentum, and full stochastic. Weakening was seen in the rest of the oscillators. All are still below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8790 and $0.9568 ($0.8735 and $0.9599 yesterday), continue converging, but barely now. If price trend continues the limits should stop converging shortly and likely begin diverging.
All in, only the low volume, suggesting no strength in the downward move, is a potential positive. However, it may be a "hangover" from the holiday weekend so I wouldn't put any faith in it at all - only the low volume, suggesting no strength in the downward move, is a potential positive. However, it may be a "hangover" from the holiday weekend so I wouldn't put any faith in it at all.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but short percentage moved to the low end of my desired range (needs re-check), a good sign. It was offset though by the buy percentage remaining below the level suggesting possible appreciation - short or long-term.
The spread contracted big-time and is near the range where we might expect consolidation to continue. It needs just a little more "shrinkage" to get there. For now it's still wide enough to suggest more near-term weakening, although that s may begin to abate.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held deteriorated from 15 negatives and 9 positives to 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 10/24 is -$0.1877, -17.40%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7208%, -0.6795%, -0.7820%, -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, and -1.4743%.
All in, not as negative as recently but still only hints that VWAP may stop descending. I'll go a little less bearish, but not quite back to "mild", during this consolidation.
Bill
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