VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN (DWT)

[Smittle]

OPEC deal in doubt, and that means $30 oil — analysts react to latest developments

BarbaraKollmeyer

Analysts were weighing in on Monday as fresh developments cast a shadow over whether this week’s OPEC meeting can deliver a much-anticipated production cut.

Crude CLF7, +2.26% prices have lost 4% since Wednesday, but where they go next is a moving target, buffeted by the horse trading ahead of the summit. On Friday, futures were hit by news that Saudi Arabian officials won’t attend a Monday meeting with Russia and other energy producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The 14-nation cartel meets in Vienna on Wednesday to try to finalize a deal to reduce output.

Analysts suggested the Saudi move is aimed at putting pressure on Iran to agree to a freeze. Iran and Iraq are seen as potential blockers to an output agreement. Iran’s oil minister said Saturday that the country still hopes to be exempted from any production curbs.

Then on Sunday, the Saudi energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, reportedly said the oil market will rebalance on its own and questioned the need for production cuts, according to Reuters.


Meanwhile, Libya over the weekend outright rejected taking part in any OPEC cuts. The head of Libya’s dominant National Oil Corporation, Mustafa Sanalla, said the country’s economic situation is too fragile, and it can’t participate in any cuts “for the foreseeable future,” according to media reports.

As the negotiations continue ahead of the OPEC summit, here’s what analysts are saying about the latest developments and what they mean for oil prices:

• “The stakes are high, and the unusual amount of diplomacy would suggest a firm deal is far from in place, but all parties will be very aware failure to deliver a deal will see crude prices back on their way to a $30 dollar handle very quickly.” — Stuart Ive, client manager at OM Financial, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires.

• “If OPEC really does decide on Wednesday not to implement the production cut that has been promised for the past two months, oil prices can be expected to fall towards the $40-per-barrel mark.” — Commerzbank’s head of commodity research Eugen Weinberg and team.

• “Perhaps Saudi Arabia is realizing that this is not a deal worth making. “ — Vivek Dhar, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Dhar said Saudi Arabia was probably looking at how an OPEC agreement could cause U.S. shale producers to increase their own output. He added that even if a deal is reached, a lift for crude prices may only be temporary, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Read: How an OPEC output deal could catapult U.S. producers back to stardom

• “Here we go. Buckle up ... [the] meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers will be significant, albeit for the wrong reasons as Saudi Arabia’s absence draws the headlines. Expect running commentary throughout the day (and week) to increase the price volatility of both Brent and U.S. crude and Energy names.” — Mike van Dulken and Henry Croft at Accendo Markets

Good morning, boys and girls! Remember to take pre-(OPEC)-meeting statements with a bucket of salt. Price is down. They will sound bullish.

— Samir (Sam) Madani (@Samir_Madani) 1:09 AM - 28 Nov 2016
• “Russia’s possible intention to contribute to a coordinated effort to curb the crude supply overhang remains in doubt despite statements by its Energy Minister and deputy suggesting that a freeze at current production levels would in effect be equivalent to a cut of 200,000-300,000 [barrels a day].
“This latter volume is more or less in line with our expected annual supply growth for 2017 (of 220,000 b/d), but with the recent surge in October, Russia has in fact already reached this higher production level, indicating that any freeze would simply be just that — holding production steady at the recent strong level.” — JBC Energy Research Centre.

• “The support at $45.95 will be key today, and a close below would be a negative development and open the $44.55 key support ...The truth is though that the closer we get to the OPEC meeting, the more nervous traders will be getting for positioning. This means that volatility will be high and news-driven trading will take over.” — Richard Perry, market analyst at Hantec Markets.

• “Rising oil prices thanks to the freeze have convinced some that the bad times are over, and that now they can go back to the good old days of arguing over market share. If they fail to come up with a new deal this week, OPEC will have, once again, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.” — IG’s Chris Beauchamp.

• “Although OPEC may be repeatedly commended on their ability to create speculative boosts in oil via freeze deal hopes this may come at a very heavy price if nothing is achieved on Wednesday. The classical prisoner’s dilemma OPEC members face coupled with the persistent oversupply woes could ensure low oil prices remains a recurrent theme in the medium


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-deal-in-doubt-and-that-means-30-oil-analysts-react-to-latest-developments-2016-11-28