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Sunday, November 27, 2016 2:20:38 PM
It's true trades can change based on what time frame is being looked at. If something is bullish on a longer time frame it still doesn't mean ignore the smaller time frame or decide to go against it.
Looking back at the list of charts this weekend it appears that ichimoku eliminates 90% of the charts per time frame as not good enough (but would still work likely) . So there's no benefit in trying to match up say a daily and weekly chart per symbol before trying to trade them. The list would be 0.1*0.1 = 1% of its original size and lots of good charts would be omitted.
Ichimoku also accounts for higher timeframe trends with the kumo cloud extended out 26 days into the future. It is like getting the benefit of the higher timeframe using still the daily timeframe that has more data points so it can measure and react quicker, as a daily chart samples the price 5x faster then the trading week chart (1 week compared to 5 days mon-fri). So the indicator kind of gets the best of both worlds this way. I find most of the time the good ichimoku charts sort of built in the weekly chart being set up properly most of the time and when it finds charts where the weekly isn't there yet, then it just has picked up the new trend quicker. I'm not some ichimoku freak or anything just trying out the indicator and noticed it worked well and simply on one chart.
Okay so granted the weekly time frame disagrees with the daily, but the daily has advantages. It moves quicker. So if the indicator turns bearish it will be a less percentage move that makes it compared to the weekly. Plus the daily indicator reacts faster overall and can move with the trend more than the weekly can so it can fit into all the nooks and crannies of the chart and extract more profit per trade at a greater frequency.
If I can do a 10% trade every week and roll the profits into the next trade, it is like saying 1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1 = 1.46 or 46% per month. Someone might get 20% in the same time period waiting through all the peaks and valleys if trading weekly on the same chart. It's less risky trading the daily as the position is not on for weeks where bad things can and certainly do happen that affect the position adversely. So trading on smaller time frames helps get the trader out of the unnecessary predict the future business.
Another way to look at it, say in any given week 98% of the time some major event doesn't happen that can affect the stock adversely. Since there are 52 weeks in a year, then (0.98)^52 = 0.3497 so there is a 65.08% chance something is going to make the position go off in the year. One can avoid that by sticking to the daily timeframe equivalently it would be like saying 99.6% of the time nothing is going to affect the position tomorrow. But at the end of year there still is a 65% chance something is going to throw the position off. So knowing this, it is better to stick with a chart that reacts faster to get out when it happens, thus the daily instead of the weekly.
If you have the ThinkorSwim platform this is the scan I am using to find the picks you can cut and paste them into a scan criteria. Then I'm looking at how far it goes from the red kijun line in the past and saying it should stall out there in the future for a target like it did before. That's it!
def up =
close > Ichimoku()."Span A"
and
close > Ichimoku()."Span B"
and
ichimoku().tenkan > ichimoku().kijun
and
ichimoku().chikou[26] > Ichimoku()."Span A"[26]
#and
#ichimoku().chikou[26] > Ichimoku()."Span B"[26]
and
ichimoku().chikou[26] > high[26]
and
Ichimoku()."Span A"[-26] > Ichimoku()."Span B"[-26]
;
plot buy = up;
def down =
close < Ichimoku()."Span A"
and
close < Ichimoku()."Span B"
and
ichimoku().tenkan < ichimoku().kijun
and
ichimoku().chikou[26] < Ichimoku()."Span A"[26]
#and
#ichimoku().chikou[26] < Ichimoku()."Span B"[26]
and
ichimoku().chikou[26] < low[26]
and
Ichimoku()."Span A"[-26] < Ichimoku()."Span B"[-26]
;
plot sell = down;
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