We should see a trend change come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 211472 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 216960 to 211472. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Tue. Nov. 22, 2016, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is quite strong trading above the December 2015 high. S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 220294 and is trading up about 7.77% for the year from last year's closing of 204394. So far, we have been trading up for the past 12 days since the low made on Fri. Nov. 4, 2016.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 14th at 218989, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up since the low made week of October 31st at 208379 for the past 2 weeks, which has been a sharp move of 5.09% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 14th reaching 218989 has exceeded the previous high of 217999 made back during the week of September 19th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low of 208379 for the past 2 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
Critical support still underlies this market at 203968 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible. Logically, my long-term view prospective recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been an extended Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index which remains in motion as long as we hold above 203967 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Caution is advisable since this is also 34 years up from the low of given that was the major low 1982. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 204394, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 186701 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 213472 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 186701 intraday will negate that outcome.
Directing our attention to the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a rally moving into 2018 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2020. Focusing an important timing model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Honing in on the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2018. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility. Focusing on the potential for sharp movement, our Panic Cycle target, for the next period to watchis during 2015. Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle differs from just volatility. This can be either an outside reversal or a sharp move in only one direction. Panic Cycles can be either up or down. Watch the oscillators and the reversals to determine the best indication of the potential direction.
Honing in on the immediate trend remains bullish since October made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is suggesting to pay close attention since last month had closed lower so the downward momentum has subsided and we may have a near term shift in trend. So far, this is an outside reversal to the upside, which is a significant move. . On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 2 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 218989, which was created during the week of November 14th. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 8 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February. The last high on the monthly level was 219381, which was created during August.
• DiscoverGold
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Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must! • DiscoverGold
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