Wednesday, November 23, 2016 9:05:32 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/22 2016 EOD
Conventional TA says nothing good is going on right now. My unconventional stuff says there's less bearish bias in the consolidation, which is likely to continue. The intra-day manipulation has been less successful of late and I suspect this will continue to be the case.
So all in I think straight consolidation on low volume with only a mild bearish bias, if any bias appears. I wouldn't be surprised to see no strong bias at all.
Today's extremely low volume and odd intra-day behavior might have been an artifact of the coming holiday weekend as the MMs, and maybe a few odd traders of various types, tried to make some money. I'm guessing all the bigger money has already started their holidays and whomever is left to trade is probably averse to getting long on a dog stock like this over long weekends.
A consistently dropping range from 11:30 through 13:00 while the buy percentage kept dropping and extremely low volume all day made me wonder if shorters were sitting on the falling bid doing covering buys. Don't know, never will and I only wondered what would account for consistent selling at these levels. Sans high volume it seems unlikely to be shorters shorting into the market. It could be the MMs, exempt from naked short prohibitions, just drumming up what volume they could. If so we could see the buy percentage climb after this (13:32 right now) as the MMs cover.
N.B. May have hit that on the nose. Using 10:30's ~67% as a starting point (very arbitrary and on such low volume, only 7.1K at that time, may be a bad starting point) the buy percentage declined close to half to ~37.6% by 13:30. The interesting part of this is that then the buy percentage began going up as price stayed in the doldrums in the low $0.91xx range until 15:15 began a late-day push up on such low volume I suspected it must getting manipulated again.
Anyway, buy percentage did a "blip" to ~41% at 13:45, dropped back to ~38% by 14:30 and then climbed consistently, hitting ~42% at 15:45 and ending the day at 41.3%.
We closed down 3.61% from the open.
So this does make me think what we saw today was predominantly MM action and not shorters and certainly not investors. Maybe had some day traders too? I didn't see signs of them though other than the late-day volume and price volatility so I don't think there were many. Maybe some swing traders got the wrong read and were in too?
There were was one pre-market 50 share $0.92 buy.
09:30-10:41 opened the day with a 2,712 buy for $0.9390, $0.92 x 300, $0.9191 x 200, and $0.939 x 50. In summary, the following traded extremely low/no-volume $0.9100/74 with very slowly creeping upward lows.
What was seen was 9:31's 1.2K $0.91, 9:36's b/a of 3.5K:3.3K $0.9100/99, 9:38's 150 $0.9101, 9:41's b/a 3.1K:1.8K $0.9100/74, 9:41's 200 $0.9175, 9:45's 230 $0.9100/14, 9:46's 100 $0.91. 9:48's 130 $0.9101, 9:52's b/a of 2.6K:1,8K $0.9100/74, 10:02's ~1.7K $0.9116/63, 10:04's 100 $0.9174, 10:06's b/a 200:1.5K $0.9101/74, 10:19's 200:1.5K $0.9102/74, 10:22's 100 $0.9175, 10:27's 100 $0.9103, 10:33's b/a 1.6K:1.8K $0.9103/74. The period ended on 10:41's 500 $0.9105->$0.9174,
10:42-11:29, after seven no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.9138/$0.93, with very slowly declining highs and lows, on 10:48's ~5K $0.9174/75/$0.9200/$0.9400/$0.9120/3/$0.9400/$0.9124. B/a at 10:48 was 200:2.6K $0.9124/$0.9400, 10:55 500:3.2K $0.9201/$0.9400. Volume was interrupted by 11:02's 2.2K $0.9200/1. B/a at 11:04 was 600:700 $0.9121/299. Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 6.1K $0.9123/46 and 11:19's 2K $0.9287. B/a at 11:19 1K:600 was $0.9125/299, 11:26 800:400 $0.9127/299. The period ended on 11:29's 600 $0.9127/99.
11:30-13:35, after one no-trades minutes, began avery low/no-volume decline from $0.9128/99 on 11:31's 200 $0.9128. B/a at 11:52 was 300:2K $0.9127/88 (bots fiddling the offers again). By 11:55 lows were down to $0.9127 and 12:15 $0.9120. By 12:25 highs were down to $0.9171. B/a at 12:25 was 7.5K:1.1K $0.9120/70, 12:33 7.4K:1,7K $0.9120/67. Highs were down to $0.9149 by 12:49. B/a at 12:51 was 6.9K:900 $0.9120/58. Volume was interrupted by 12:59-13:01's 6K $0.9120/49. B/a at 13:03 was 5.4K:900 $0.9120/52, 12:17 300:1.2K $0.9120/45. The high was down to $0.9043 by 13:26. B/a at 13:28 was 200:1K $0.9120/42, 13:35 4.8K:300 $0.9120/38. The period ended on 13:35's 384 $.09128.
13:36-14:42 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9120/30 on 13:42's 4.1K $0.9137 (2.5K)->$0.9130/20. B/a at 13:48 was 4.4K:100 $0.9120/9, 14:17 4.1K:200 $0.9121/7, 14:33 100:900 $0.9121/8, 14:33 100:900 $0.9121/8. The period ended on 14:42's110 $0.9129.
14:43-15:20, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume slow, but high, rise on 14:44's 100 $0.9134. B/a at 14:48 was 25:100 $0.9129/37 (bid backed by presented 4.2K $0.9120). Trade hit 15:00's 200 $0.9177, 15:10's b/a 300:300 $0.9178/$0.9305, 15:04's 100 $0.9305, 15:14's b/a 300:500 $0.9178/$0.9305. The period ended on 15:20's 274 $0.93.
15:21-16:00, after thirteen no-trades minutes, began a rising-volume fall into the close on 15:33's ~1K $0.9299/01/50/99. B/a at 15:40 was 200:1K $0.9251/97, 15:47 200:300 $0.9200/47. Trade hit 15:50's 1.8K $0.92->$0.912, 15:58's 4.7K $0.912->$0.905->$0.9075, and ended the period and day on 15:59's 800 $0.9100/18->$0.9052 and 16;00's 100 share sell for $0.9051.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 5,000, 6.59% of day's volume, with a $0.9146 VWAP. Needless to say, but I will anyway, the count and percentage of day's trade volume are excessively low.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the most important thing is we closed below the short-term triangle's (lower right orange lines) adjusted rising support. If we close below it again tomorrow the break down is confirmed, especially if it's on rising volume. I don't expect much volume due to the holiday season.
Trade was completely contained by the horizontal resistance and the rising support. Ignoring the holiday season, conventional TA would say this is indecision caused consolidation as folks were uncertain of what the move out of the triangle would be. With the close 3.4 cents, -3.61%, the odds would seem to favor a break down.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue converging and moving the mid-point higher as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit falls. Our trade range is slightly above the mid-point.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the seventh day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will begin rolling over, the 20-day will fall three more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 34 (again) days or so.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had every oscillator weakened. Nothing was overbought, everything but MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R were below neutral, and nothing was oversold. This fit with my increased bearish bias outlook within the consolidation.
Today marginal weakening occurred in every oscillator but for momentum, which rose.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8082 and $0.9915 ($0.7787 and $1.0018 yesterday), continued converging with a rising mid-point as the lower limit rises faster than the upper limit falls. With our trade range slightly above the mid-point and the spread fairly narrow now we should expect some kind of larger move in the next few days. With the holidays upon us though it may not appear until next week.
Of course, this is an ideal time for manipulation because volume and directional pressure are low.
All in, nothing positive here. The negative aspects may be an effect of holiday season though so we can't really expect anything one way or the other with confidence.
All the following may be an effect of holiday season, so a grain of salt is recommended.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but the short percentage did get back into the desired range (needs re-check) at the lower end. Unfortunately, the buy percentage only got up to the level suggesting a slower VWAP decline and is not in a range that normally sees some near-term appreciation
The spread is finally back into a range that solidly suggests consolidation. Combined with severely low volume, I think we can count on it unless we see intra-day signs of manipulation, which has been a regular feature of late.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the sixth day, at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 10/19 is -$0.1505, -14.10%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, and -1.7635%.
The rolling VWAP average movements look to be starting to stabilize at better readings. Let's hope that continues for a while.
All in, I read the above as continued consolidation with less of a bearish bias that was determined yesterday. I suspect flattish behavior over the next day or two unless someone takes advantage to do some low-volume intra-day manipulation. Based on the record though, they won't be able to move price much even if they attempt it.
Bill
Conventional TA says nothing good is going on right now. My unconventional stuff says there's less bearish bias in the consolidation, which is likely to continue. The intra-day manipulation has been less successful of late and I suspect this will continue to be the case.
So all in I think straight consolidation on low volume with only a mild bearish bias, if any bias appears. I wouldn't be surprised to see no strong bias at all.
Today's extremely low volume and odd intra-day behavior might have been an artifact of the coming holiday weekend as the MMs, and maybe a few odd traders of various types, tried to make some money. I'm guessing all the bigger money has already started their holidays and whomever is left to trade is probably averse to getting long on a dog stock like this over long weekends.
A consistently dropping range from 11:30 through 13:00 while the buy percentage kept dropping and extremely low volume all day made me wonder if shorters were sitting on the falling bid doing covering buys. Don't know, never will and I only wondered what would account for consistent selling at these levels. Sans high volume it seems unlikely to be shorters shorting into the market. It could be the MMs, exempt from naked short prohibitions, just drumming up what volume they could. If so we could see the buy percentage climb after this (13:32 right now) as the MMs cover.
N.B. May have hit that on the nose. Using 10:30's ~67% as a starting point (very arbitrary and on such low volume, only 7.1K at that time, may be a bad starting point) the buy percentage declined close to half to ~37.6% by 13:30. The interesting part of this is that then the buy percentage began going up as price stayed in the doldrums in the low $0.91xx range until 15:15 began a late-day push up on such low volume I suspected it must getting manipulated again.
Anyway, buy percentage did a "blip" to ~41% at 13:45, dropped back to ~38% by 14:30 and then climbed consistently, hitting ~42% at 15:45 and ending the day at 41.3%.
We closed down 3.61% from the open.
So this does make me think what we saw today was predominantly MM action and not shorters and certainly not investors. Maybe had some day traders too? I didn't see signs of them though other than the late-day volume and price volatility so I don't think there were many. Maybe some swing traders got the wrong read and were in too?
There were was one pre-market 50 share $0.92 buy.
09:30-10:41 opened the day with a 2,712 buy for $0.9390, $0.92 x 300, $0.9191 x 200, and $0.939 x 50. In summary, the following traded extremely low/no-volume $0.9100/74 with very slowly creeping upward lows.
What was seen was 9:31's 1.2K $0.91, 9:36's b/a of 3.5K:3.3K $0.9100/99, 9:38's 150 $0.9101, 9:41's b/a 3.1K:1.8K $0.9100/74, 9:41's 200 $0.9175, 9:45's 230 $0.9100/14, 9:46's 100 $0.91. 9:48's 130 $0.9101, 9:52's b/a of 2.6K:1,8K $0.9100/74, 10:02's ~1.7K $0.9116/63, 10:04's 100 $0.9174, 10:06's b/a 200:1.5K $0.9101/74, 10:19's 200:1.5K $0.9102/74, 10:22's 100 $0.9175, 10:27's 100 $0.9103, 10:33's b/a 1.6K:1.8K $0.9103/74. The period ended on 10:41's 500 $0.9105->$0.9174,
10:42-11:29, after seven no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.9138/$0.93, with very slowly declining highs and lows, on 10:48's ~5K $0.9174/75/$0.9200/$0.9400/$0.9120/3/$0.9400/$0.9124. B/a at 10:48 was 200:2.6K $0.9124/$0.9400, 10:55 500:3.2K $0.9201/$0.9400. Volume was interrupted by 11:02's 2.2K $0.9200/1. B/a at 11:04 was 600:700 $0.9121/299. Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 6.1K $0.9123/46 and 11:19's 2K $0.9287. B/a at 11:19 1K:600 was $0.9125/299, 11:26 800:400 $0.9127/299. The period ended on 11:29's 600 $0.9127/99.
11:30-13:35, after one no-trades minutes, began avery low/no-volume decline from $0.9128/99 on 11:31's 200 $0.9128. B/a at 11:52 was 300:2K $0.9127/88 (bots fiddling the offers again). By 11:55 lows were down to $0.9127 and 12:15 $0.9120. By 12:25 highs were down to $0.9171. B/a at 12:25 was 7.5K:1.1K $0.9120/70, 12:33 7.4K:1,7K $0.9120/67. Highs were down to $0.9149 by 12:49. B/a at 12:51 was 6.9K:900 $0.9120/58. Volume was interrupted by 12:59-13:01's 6K $0.9120/49. B/a at 13:03 was 5.4K:900 $0.9120/52, 12:17 300:1.2K $0.9120/45. The high was down to $0.9043 by 13:26. B/a at 13:28 was 200:1K $0.9120/42, 13:35 4.8K:300 $0.9120/38. The period ended on 13:35's 384 $.09128.
13:36-14:42 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9120/30 on 13:42's 4.1K $0.9137 (2.5K)->$0.9130/20. B/a at 13:48 was 4.4K:100 $0.9120/9, 14:17 4.1K:200 $0.9121/7, 14:33 100:900 $0.9121/8, 14:33 100:900 $0.9121/8. The period ended on 14:42's110 $0.9129.
14:43-15:20, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume slow, but high, rise on 14:44's 100 $0.9134. B/a at 14:48 was 25:100 $0.9129/37 (bid backed by presented 4.2K $0.9120). Trade hit 15:00's 200 $0.9177, 15:10's b/a 300:300 $0.9178/$0.9305, 15:04's 100 $0.9305, 15:14's b/a 300:500 $0.9178/$0.9305. The period ended on 15:20's 274 $0.93.
15:21-16:00, after thirteen no-trades minutes, began a rising-volume fall into the close on 15:33's ~1K $0.9299/01/50/99. B/a at 15:40 was 200:1K $0.9251/97, 15:47 200:300 $0.9200/47. Trade hit 15:50's 1.8K $0.92->$0.912, 15:58's 4.7K $0.912->$0.905->$0.9075, and ended the period and day on 15:59's 800 $0.9100/18->$0.9052 and 16;00's 100 share sell for $0.9051.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 5,000, 6.59% of day's volume, with a $0.9146 VWAP. Needless to say, but I will anyway, the count and percentage of day's trade volume are excessively low.
What do you think about that 800 shares in 40 minutes? Think it was hard for that VWAP to pop like it did during that period? That was the set-up for someone to sell(?) going into the close I guess. Note the VWAP in that ending period didn't drop much so I guess someone accomplished their goal.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:41 7481 $0.9100 $0.9390 $6,892.02 $0.9213 9.86% 64.48%
11:29 16850 $0.9120 $0.9400 $15,493.27 $0.9195 22.22% 45.21% Incl 11:15 $0.9146 5,000
13:35 15459 $0.9120 $0.9199 $14,118.83 $0.9133 20.38% 38.73%
14:42 11566 $0.9120 $0.9137 $10,555.92 $0.9127 15.25% 39.33%
15:20 800 $0.9134 $0.9305 $736.25 $0.9203 1.05% 40.09%
16:00 22282 $0.9050 $0.9299 $20,445.94 $0.9176 29.38% 41.31%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
I suspect the volume dro and extremely low magnitude is due to larger players starting holiday early. One side-effect of that maybe the high managing to match yesterday's. This occurred on a one-minute volume (only relative to today's extremely low volumes) and price spike on 10:48's 4.8K $0.9174->$0.94->$0.912->$0.9124. The open had the usual high as well, but it only hit $0.939 (low $0.9101) in ~2.3K. Notice the close. It would be even worse if we didn't have an extremely low-volume push up ~14:30-15:00 to $0.9305 before collapsing back into the close with relatively high volume during the last half-hour.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.11% 0.56% 0.00% -0.55% -61.06%
Prior 5.27% 0.11% -2.16% 2.22% -51.39%
On my minimal chart the most important thing is we closed below the short-term triangle's (lower right orange lines) adjusted rising support. If we close below it again tomorrow the break down is confirmed, especially if it's on rising volume. I don't expect much volume due to the holiday season.
Trade was completely contained by the horizontal resistance and the rising support. Ignoring the holiday season, conventional TA would say this is indecision caused consolidation as folks were uncertain of what the move out of the triangle would be. With the close 3.4 cents, -3.61%, the odds would seem to favor a break down.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue converging and moving the mid-point higher as the lower limit rises more quickly than the upper limit falls. Our trade range is slightly above the mid-point.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the seventh day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will begin rolling over, the 20-day will fall three more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 34 (again) days or so.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had every oscillator weakened. Nothing was overbought, everything but MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R were below neutral, and nothing was oversold. This fit with my increased bearish bias outlook within the consolidation.
Today marginal weakening occurred in every oscillator but for momentum, which rose.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.8082 and $0.9915 ($0.7787 and $1.0018 yesterday), continued converging with a rising mid-point as the lower limit rises faster than the upper limit falls. With our trade range slightly above the mid-point and the spread fairly narrow now we should expect some kind of larger move in the next few days. With the holidays upon us though it may not appear until next week.
Of course, this is an ideal time for manipulation because volume and directional pressure are low.
All in, nothing positive here. The negative aspects may be an effect of holiday season though so we can't really expect anything one way or the other with confidence.
All the following may be an effect of holiday season, so a grain of salt is recommended.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, but the short percentage did get back into the desired range (needs re-check) at the lower end. Unfortunately, the buy percentage only got up to the level suggesting a slower VWAP decline and is not in a range that normally sees some near-term appreciation
The spread is finally back into a range that solidly suggests consolidation. Combined with severely low volume, I think we can count on it unless we see intra-day signs of manipulation, which has been a regular feature of late.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the sixth day, at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 10/19 is -$0.1505, -14.10%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5530%, -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, and -1.7635%.
The rolling VWAP average movements look to be starting to stabilize at better readings. Let's hope that continues for a while.
All in, I read the above as continued consolidation with less of a bearish bias that was determined yesterday. I suspect flattish behavior over the next day or two unless someone takes advantage to do some low-volume intra-day manipulation. Based on the record though, they won't be able to move price much even if they attempt it.
Bill
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