Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK)

[mikeymgd]

I am mostly a day trader in CHK(unfortunately out currently) but agree that this could be good long term play as well. I feel the high side is still under 10 dollars. At least for the next 12 months that is.

With that said I believe those numbers are a bit too high. The US does not rely heavily on OPEC like the rest of the world does so I do not see a Tariff doing anything more than pissing off the world. OPEC is a huge supplier for Europe and Asia. Currently the US only imports about 10% of its oil from OPEC countries so we would need to lean on Canada (our largest supplier) and Mexico to make up for the loss of OPEC oil. This of course might not be that bad since Mexico could potentially make up a large amount of the missing OPEC oil. Only 3m barrels come from OPEC countries and I would expect we could source 1-2m of them pretty quickly. The Tariffs would create a change in distribution more than a lack of oil.

Next would be the spike in Gas. Natural gas is in a supply glut and there is no sign of that changing. Yes our storage may go down but we would need an ice age to run out. The US has more Natural Gas in supply and storage than in our history. Hardly a position to expect us to run out. Natural Gas could spike above 3 dollars but there is not real reason to see 4 dollars unless the US Natural Gas Industry has a large scale production problem.

2015 US Production - 28,752,935
2015 US Consumption -27,306,285

As you can see we consume less than we produce and production is climbing along side consumption. The US has lots of Natural Gas and we will be a glut for a number of years to come.

Also for storage to drain by March 2017, we would need a massive slow down or complete stop in production. Cold weather alone would not have a large effect on storage. Look for Natural Gas Producers to increase production if storage begins to go down. You must remember that we produce more than we consume. A small drop in storage over the winter is normal and not a concern. The storage fills again in spring and summer. Normal Ebb and Flow .....In fact we are out of storage capacity we produce so much.

JMHO