"Ian is counting on catching a ride with the announcement of the granting of a patent.
Quite true, the stock could rise (on a very short term basis) with such an announcement...but the trick is the price of the stock could also continue to drop while the patent office evaluates the patent application. It could take the patent office additional YEARS to finish their evaluation, and I don't think this stock will have barely any value left within a matter of months.
The company is going to have to continue to sell more shares of stock to fund it's "spending needs" which will continue to drive the share price downward.
I think this move on Ian's part is extremely risky with the chance for a payoff of about 5% at current share price levels (.075). I think the chances of the SEC shutting down trading is much more likely which could cause an even further reduction in the share price!
Good luck, Ian.
I personally would never make a bet with the probability of winning of only 5%. Of course, this probability is my opinion from the information that I have as of this date.
If the share price today were approximately .02, THEN the probability of making a gain would approach 40% in my opinion (again based on the information available TODAY). In my models, this price point (if we were there today) would be the best probability point for profit. If the share price drops from .02 the probability drops off again. So, no matter how you look at this thing, right now it just isn't looking too good!
I just still see much room for the price to drop..."
--Repost from July 13, 2006
AI
