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Sunday, 11/13/2016 1:05:54 AM

Sunday, November 13, 2016 1:05:54 AM

Post# of 403
Investment Outlook

We believe that the U.S. election uncertainly has been a significant factor causing equity market weakness in recent weeks. It is our expectation that equities will rally materially in the months following the election as this uncertainty abates. Third quarter earnings have been strong, surpassing estimates by a wider margin than normal. Global growth has begun to re-accelerate. Investor sentiment remains poor as reflected by record cash levels. Blackrock, one of the world’s largest asset managers with over $5 trillion under management, recently reported that investors worldwide are currently holding a record US$50 trillion in cash. In the current interest rate environment, this is earning miniscule returns. Even a marginal amount of this cash shifting to equities will have a significant impact. The most recent investor poll in early November showed that only 23.6% of respondents are bullish. This level is highly correlated with positive future returns.

It is important to reiterate that the favourable seasonality for Canadian small caps starts NOW. Historically, the best months of the year by a wide margin are December, January and February. This period has resulted in positive returns nearly 80% of the time since 1982 with annualized returns of over 50%. We strongly encourage investors to position their portfolios accordingly.