Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CLVLY)

[ghmm]

Having detailed press releases or a conference call (where management is willing to answer questions) would be great now to get a better sense of the launch (which they should know). For example:
1-Are they receiving reorders from the same centers and what rate. This could help in gaging both compliance and number of patients (which I think could be higher than many of the estimates)
2-What is the revenue by territory. It would be great to get patient numbers by country but I doubt they'd give that at least a revenue break down would help to gage the launch.

I saw someone on sharescene post about production cost. I haven't (yet) looked at historical numbers and don't know if we have enough data (e.g. how much inventory did they have, what is the shelf life of Scenesse, etc.) to gage but with the limited info the company gives that may be one number to pay closer attention to.

As far a Vitiligo partnership people seem to have too high of expectations in terms of up-front. With the limited data I doubt they get a big up front payment if they even do a partnership deal.

As far as other uses I think the best bet are follow on Melanocyte products unless the indications have Orphan opportunity (and the 7/10 year protection that comes with it). The IP left on Scenesse and the time to get through P3 trials doesn't make much sense to purse with afamelanotide.

Bottom line I am happy with the numbers with the limited rollout thus far and think the revenue (for just Europe) could go higher than expected as patient numbers may be higher (as often happens in rare diseases). The US opportunity though smaller patient numbers than Europe should get a price premium and quicker launch (if/when approved) so in some ways it is more valuable than EU.