ABC / Wapo Clinton "Lead" Shrinks To 1-Point As New York Times Sees 4-Point Trump Advantage In Florida
Oct 30, 2016 12:50 PM
Yesterday we revealed that the ABC / Wapo poll is a complete farce after even their own pollsters admitted that the recent 10-point convergence between Clinton and Trump, in a matter of just a couple of days, was "not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote"...so it wasn't about voter preference but about how ABC / Wapo chose their "oversamples."
In any event, the latest results, out today, show Hillary's lead shrinking further to just 1-point. The poll was conducted October 25-28, so, in theory, it includes 1 day of the FBI announcement. That said, the FBI announcement didn't really hit the media until late in the day on Friday so it's unclear if it has impacted this particular poll as of yet. To be sure, ABC / Wapo clearly made an effort to maintain a slight Hillary lead in this latest poll by expanding their democrat "oversample" margin from 8-points yesterday to 9-points in today's poll.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 25-28, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,160 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-28-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Interestingly, ABC / Wapo found that "a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails."
About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email serverwhile secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference.
The potential for a pullback in motivation of Clinton supporters, or further resurgence among Trump’s, may cause concern in the Clinton camp–especially because this dynamic already was underway. Intention to vote has grown in Trump support groups in the past week as the intensity of criticisms about him has ebbed, including allegations of sexual misconduct, disapproval of his position on the election’s legitimacy and his poorly rated final debate performance.
Not that we have any confidence in these numbers, but here is how ABC / Wapo see the current state of play in the 2016 presidential election:
Oct 30, 2016 12:50 PM
Yesterday we revealed that the ABC / Wapo poll is a complete farce after even their own pollsters admitted that the recent 10-point convergence between Clinton and Trump, in a matter of just a couple of days, was "not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote"...so it wasn't about voter preference but about how ABC / Wapo chose their "oversamples."
In any event, the latest results, out today, show Hillary's lead shrinking further to just 1-point. The poll was conducted October 25-28, so, in theory, it includes 1 day of the FBI announcement. That said, the FBI announcement didn't really hit the media until late in the day on Friday so it's unclear if it has impacted this particular poll as of yet. To be sure, ABC / Wapo clearly made an effort to maintain a slight Hillary lead in this latest poll by expanding their democrat "oversample" margin from 8-points yesterday to 9-points in today's poll.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 25-28, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,160 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-28-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Interestingly, ABC / Wapo found that "a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails."
About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email serverwhile secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference.
The potential for a pullback in motivation of Clinton supporters, or further resurgence among Trump’s, may cause concern in the Clinton camp–especially because this dynamic already was underway. Intention to vote has grown in Trump support groups in the past week as the intensity of criticisms about him has ebbed, including allegations of sexual misconduct, disapproval of his position on the election’s legitimacy and his poorly rated final debate performance.
Not that we have any confidence in these numbers, but here is how ABC / Wapo see the current state of play in the 2016 presidential election:
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