fluffy: he's actually in a peculiar situation right now with NFLD...SG Cowen poached him away from Cathay a month or so ago, and unfortunately SG Cowen has another analyst covering the stock (Schimmer, who I was supposed to meet but didn't). So, he said there is still some internal discussion going on about whether or not he will cover the stock instead of Schimmer....he is far more qualified than Schimmer that's for sure. Anyways...he's quite bullish on the stock. He looks at it as extraordinarily undervalued...multi-bil market, no competitors for many years, high odds of approval, etc...he thinks the data will show non-inferiority to SOC, which is a primary endpoint in the study worthy of approval. he thinks the secondary endpoints will show major superiority with long transit times, reductions in MOF, reductions in mean hospitalization duration, and other things that are worth tens of billions to the health care system...his major concern with the stock at this point is management's ability to find the right price point and negotiate with EMS systems and payors...he is concerned that their proposed $1000/unit will price them out of the market if non-inferiority is found. he said there will definitely be a market for 100k units/year or so at $1,000/unit....but to ramp up to the 400k units/year level, which he believes to be the true US market for the trauma indication, he doesn't think $1k/unit will work. he says this is the biggest unknown to him right now in his valuation analyses...
he also has a major concern with the growing short interest. there are now 6 million short shares out of about 28 million outstanding. furthermore, the stock has been a "regular" on the SEC's REG SHO list since it's inception, which indicates that illegal naked short selling activity has been rampant. he believes that the shorts are taking advantage of management's conservatism and tendency to not surprise the market with anything. BUT, he says that the fear that the shorts "know something we don't" is lingering in his mind and makes him very cautious of being overly optimistic.
he says that the "showdown" between shorts and longs should happen very soon, as top-line data will be announced in the fall. he predicts that, if the shorts are simply "trading the trial" (ie the fact that companies have nothing interesting to say during a clinical trial so shorts can operate freely with reduced fear of a mega announcement), we should see a massive covering of short shares before the data is out.
on the flipside, if the shorts have a fundamental concern with Polyheme, they will stand pat and hold positions through top-line data, which could be an extremely profitable or excrutiatingly painful day for them. by and large he doesn't believe that any professional short sellers would remain short through top-line data release though due to the uncertainty.
he also has concerns about
DISCLAIMER: NEVER ASSUME INFO ON MESSAGE BOARDS TO BE ACCURATE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE. DON'T BUY STOCK BASED ON THIS POST OR ANY OTHER POST. I OWN A LONG POSITION IN THIS STOCK AND THEREFORE I AM BIASED.
AI
