Au contraire, mon ami. The trend is NOT your friend. Nor does it support with any certainty, claims of "All is well" in at least the Freddie realm of release and recapitalization probability. If the sweep stopped, come Monday morning, Freddie could not just resume op's in accordance with regulated parameters by which they must abide because they don't make enough profit to rebuild, even if they continue to stiff the preferred shareholders. Fannie is in much better shape. Freddie is "Dead Man Walking" which is why I don't own it. If the hiatus on JPD gets lifted, there is almost NO $$$ left to rebuild anything. And if they don't restore dividends, they lose one of their primary sources of capital as banks look at an anemic income statement and say "risk, risk,risk... tsk, tsk,tsk..." and UP go the rates. You don't think the Fed is going to go low, lower, lowest on rates to FMCC when they are no longer paying the bills with UST payments, do you?
You see, all the pieces fit together.
Freddie Mac's profit in the glory hole year of 2013 (the reversal Nirvana) was a huge (maybe better described as STUPID) $48,668 M. Then it sank like a rock to $7,690 M in 2014. Then in 2015, it sank again to $6,376 M. Then the easy part of recovery slid into the rearview mirror as reality set in. The last 4 quarters look more like a red blanket in comparison to the prior better days of a "go go" economy:
Q3/2015 = ($475 M). Q4/2015 = $2198 M. Q1/2016 = ($354 M). Q2/2016 = $993 M. That is NOT sufficient to revert back to the pre-sweep 10% dividend, nor would that profit rate serve to recap Freddie Mac in any sustainable way because virtually all the "profit" is derived by continuing to STIFF the junior preferred shareholders that have gone UNPAID FOR EIGHT YEARS while touts like you hollered "look at how profitable we are." Of course you were profitable. You hid behind the government charter to pay no state or local income tax, stiffed the FnF junior preferred stockholders that put up like $60 B in capital prior to September, 2008 that got nothing... and then want to puff your chests out and claim "How Great Thou Art."
What a farce.
JMHO.
