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Saturday, October 08, 2016 2:18:48 PM
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/innovators/2014/05/140519-nocera-chemistry-artificial-leaf-solar-renewable-energy/
He said the following:
With energy, we're talking about changing a massive infrastructure. There's nothing a kid in his college room dorm is going to do that's going to change a massive infrastructure."
How massive? There's no firm, agreed-upon figure on America's historical investment in the current power infrastructure—the power plants, the coal mines, the oil rigs and fracking wells, the refineries, the railroads and ships that transport fuels, the wires that bring electricity to virtually every home. Nocera estimates the number at $150 trillion since the mid-19th century, and it is the $150 trillion gorilla in the energy debate.
"There's nobody in a Harvard lab or at MIT who's going to make a discovery—one discovery—that's going to change an infrastructure that this country built over 150 years," he says. "You're at hundreds of trillions of dollars. So what is one person with a bunch of students in a lab going to do?"
That is why he believes the revolution in renewable energy will happen not in the developed world, with its entrenched infrastructure and its impatient venture capitalists, but in places like Africa and India, where there is no existing infrastructure to block the way. And don't mistake Nocera's interest in the poor for altruism; it's pure practicality.
Given that the artificial leaf's efficiency is 10% which is far beyond that of nature (~3to4%), I understand his statement and why he has put the leaf in abeyance for now until some economics can change. Solar panels, for example, are above 20% efficiency (i.e. converting incoming sunlight into usable output energy). There really is not much demand for Hydrogen right now and other forms of energy meet demand.
The Cal Tech design and another in Chicago work in that efficiency range (I don't HyperSolar efficiency) and yet none are commercially viable due to the above type reason. I don't know what has to happen to take a quantum leap.
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