Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

cheynew, what you are missing is NASDAQ regulation.

PPHM needs to gain conformity by trading 10 BDs above 1$ before end of April 2016. So if they decide NOT to RS then they MUST make sure we trade above 1$.

My POST certainly did not IMPLY it is sure there will be a Reverse Split, if that is what you understood then I have conveyed the wrong sentiment. Just the last days I lowered the chance of a RS from my 50/50 to better then 50/50.

I have just made an almost algorithmic assessment for myself like this in order of preference:

>COMPLIANCE REGAINED by TRADING +1$
-> No RS, Authorized & Voting Power unchanged : HIGHLY PREFERRED

>COMPLIANCE REGAINED with RS
-> RS x/1, Authorized split too, revenue up, good news : ACCEPTABLE
--> idem, Authorised don't split : DEPENDENCY on PPHM's USE OF AUTHORIZED
---> idem, revenue but no good news stream : MARKET will PLAY PPS
----> idem, no revenue no good news stream : HIGH RISK for ALL

> COMPLIANCE REGAINED by DESISTING (OTC)
-> -> No RS, Authorized & Voting Power unchanged : FAR-WEST

So bottom line, if an RS occurs and we have revenue (as expected and announced in the last quarterly) and quality news (e.g. an approval or partnership(s)) comes in then I see no problem and the RS will have the positive side effect of PPS going faster up (total value after split) then it would without a split.

In all other cases, certainly if Avid, Exosomes etc do not play-out or if collaborations would break with replacement on the short term (because they will ALWAYS first tell us about a break and then the new one) then the next 21 months will require character of steel for about 18 mounts.

I see an RS happen in 40%. I didn't lower it more because the MARKET manipulation that apparently over reacts to bad news (that with hindsight was bad news) but tries NOT to react at all to excellent news. The problem is that the excellent news was worded in such a way that the market waits for to up-coming presentations to BE SURE that the PR says what we all think it says and that PPHM doesn't give a last turn to it that makes the news dollar wise worthless.

And example: We have a statistical significant overall survival of Bavi+Doce patients over Placebo+Doce patients in 2nd ln NSCLC but we will not file for approval for strategic reasons because we think that ...

After investing 60Mil$ in Sunrise, expanding and preparing Avid for commercial use, run the IP and Trademarks, etc that would be KILLING the PPS. Wall Street will as of then NEVER AGAIN react to news of PPHM unless it is a full disclosure.

You have seen how easy it was to seed doubt about the stat. sig. PR, even if that part was a clear as crystal for everybody that wanted to understand it.

So I am optimistic but just not sure for how long the lid can be kept on PPHM PPS.