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Saturday, September 24, 2016 9:34:00 AM
Peek Into Future Through Futures
* September 24, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016.
E-mini S&P 500: Companies will start reporting 3Q16 in a couple of weeks. As has been the case for at least the last six quarters, estimates have been under persistent pressure going into earnings. Since the quarter started, 3Q16 operating earnings estimates have been cut by $0.97 to $29.36 … and by $5.25 since the end of 1Q15. If past is guide, this helps stocks. In five of the last six quarters, the S&P 500 was up in the first month of the quarter, when earnings are reported.
Bulls would appreciate a little help from flows, though. In the week ended Wednesday, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost another $3.1 billion; last week, $3.4 billion was withdrawn (courtesy of ETF.com).
In the same week, U.S.-based equity funds lost $3.4 billion (courtesy of Lipper). Since the June 29th week this year, $40 billion has been redeemed, and $93 billion since the February 10th week this year. The S&P 500 had important bottoms around those dates.
The index rallied strongly off of make-or-break support at 2120, but were repelled at 2178 resistance. Bulls have the ball, and it is theirs to lose.
Currently net long 95.5k, up 1.9k.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): The Nasdaq 100 had a mini breakout, rising to a new high. Last week, Apple (AAPL), with more than 10 percent of the weight, was a big help. Not so this week. If anything, having rallied big off of iPhone announcement, it is likely to be a drag near term … it needs to hold $110.
Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL), on the other hand, rallied to fresh all-time highs.
The Nasdaq 100’s daily chart is extended, with a weekly spinning top this week.
In the week ended Wednesday, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, saw $1.5 billion in inflows, pretty much reversing last week’s $1.7 billion in outflows (courtesy of ETF.com).
Currently net long 118.7k, up 22.5k.
Russell 2000 mini-index: The Russell 2000 was able to build on last week’s successful breakout retest; this support goes back to March 2014. The Thursday intra-day high was a mere 2.6 percent from the all-time high of 1296 reached in June last year.
In the week ended Wednesday, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lost $358 million, but that was mainly due to Monday’s redemption of $877 million (courtesy of ETF.com). That said, flows need to improve. Plus, non-commercials cut back net longs in the last couple of weeks.
Currently net long 7.8k, down 448.
US Dollar Index: The spot had a wild ride on Wednesday, first rallying post-BoJ and then weakening post-FOMC, with the session high kissing the upper Bollinger Band and also past the 200-day moving average; in the end, it lost both 50- and 200-day.
The probable path of least resistance is down, with a test of the early-May 2016 rising trend line around 94.50, which is where the lower Bollinger band lies.
Currently net long 14.4k, down 2.7k.
VIX: Spot VIX did a round trip in 11 sessions – from sub-12 on the 8th to 20-plus on the 12th to back below 12 by Thursday, concurrently losing the 50-day moving average.
The daily overbought conditions are all but unwound. At best, the cash goes sideways here, as it is at the low end of years-long range.
The VIX-to-VXV ratio dropped to .766. Intra-day on the 12th, it did spike to 1.07; prior to this, the ratio languished in oversold territory – .70s and .80s – for 10 weeks. Equity bulls must be hoping for similar sideways action.
Currently net short 87.6k, down 25.3k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-62/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
* September 24, 2016
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016.
E-mini S&P 500: Companies will start reporting 3Q16 in a couple of weeks. As has been the case for at least the last six quarters, estimates have been under persistent pressure going into earnings. Since the quarter started, 3Q16 operating earnings estimates have been cut by $0.97 to $29.36 … and by $5.25 since the end of 1Q15. If past is guide, this helps stocks. In five of the last six quarters, the S&P 500 was up in the first month of the quarter, when earnings are reported.
Bulls would appreciate a little help from flows, though. In the week ended Wednesday, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost another $3.1 billion; last week, $3.4 billion was withdrawn (courtesy of ETF.com).
In the same week, U.S.-based equity funds lost $3.4 billion (courtesy of Lipper). Since the June 29th week this year, $40 billion has been redeemed, and $93 billion since the February 10th week this year. The S&P 500 had important bottoms around those dates.
The index rallied strongly off of make-or-break support at 2120, but were repelled at 2178 resistance. Bulls have the ball, and it is theirs to lose.
Currently net long 95.5k, up 1.9k.
Nasdaq 100 index (mini): The Nasdaq 100 had a mini breakout, rising to a new high. Last week, Apple (AAPL), with more than 10 percent of the weight, was a big help. Not so this week. If anything, having rallied big off of iPhone announcement, it is likely to be a drag near term … it needs to hold $110.
Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL), on the other hand, rallied to fresh all-time highs.
The Nasdaq 100’s daily chart is extended, with a weekly spinning top this week.
In the week ended Wednesday, QQQ, the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, saw $1.5 billion in inflows, pretty much reversing last week’s $1.7 billion in outflows (courtesy of ETF.com).
Currently net long 118.7k, up 22.5k.
Russell 2000 mini-index: The Russell 2000 was able to build on last week’s successful breakout retest; this support goes back to March 2014. The Thursday intra-day high was a mere 2.6 percent from the all-time high of 1296 reached in June last year.
In the week ended Wednesday, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, lost $358 million, but that was mainly due to Monday’s redemption of $877 million (courtesy of ETF.com). That said, flows need to improve. Plus, non-commercials cut back net longs in the last couple of weeks.
Currently net long 7.8k, down 448.
US Dollar Index: The spot had a wild ride on Wednesday, first rallying post-BoJ and then weakening post-FOMC, with the session high kissing the upper Bollinger Band and also past the 200-day moving average; in the end, it lost both 50- and 200-day.
The probable path of least resistance is down, with a test of the early-May 2016 rising trend line around 94.50, which is where the lower Bollinger band lies.
Currently net long 14.4k, down 2.7k.
VIX: Spot VIX did a round trip in 11 sessions – from sub-12 on the 8th to 20-plus on the 12th to back below 12 by Thursday, concurrently losing the 50-day moving average.
The daily overbought conditions are all but unwound. At best, the cash goes sideways here, as it is at the low end of years-long range.
The VIX-to-VXV ratio dropped to .766. Intra-day on the 12th, it did spike to 1.07; prior to this, the ratio languished in oversold territory – .70s and .80s – for 10 weeks. Equity bulls must be hoping for similar sideways action.
Currently net short 87.6k, down 25.3k.
http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-62/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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