Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU)

[LouisDesyjr]

Common does look dead - correction to last post

I took more of a look, since the operating report just filed is showing stockholders equity as being positive, but looking more it looks like there will be all kinds of write downs that will wipe this out.

some prior information that leads me to this conclusion:

1: Peabody Energy own busines plan for 2017 and forward. The import part is on page 45 that shows EBITDAR of $478 million.
https://mscusppegrs01.blob.core.windows.net/mmfiles/files/ch11/peabody-energy-business-plan.pdf

2: Prior article showing expected outcomes of reorg plan depending on EBITDAR with ranges of $420 million (pessimistic outcome) to $720 million per year (optimistic outcome).

The business plan as presented is more towards the 'pessimistic outcome'.

Under the 'pessimistic outcome', it is expected only the first and second lien notes get equity in the reorganized company, everyone else gets zero. (i.e. Unsecured creditors get zero, existing common shares are wiped out, unsecured notes get zero)

Louis J. Desy Jr.