Based on the price, 21.5% chance the milestone payment occurs. $28.25/cash plus $49.84 milestone. $39 current price is $10.75 over the cash buyout, about 1/5 of the milestone, = 21.5% chance priced in right now.
10.75/49.84=.215
Or, you can look at it like $10.75 of milestone payments is being priced in.
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