Vid, TC, Jess, et al, I agree that the higher the pre BO run up the higher the BO pps will be. As stated before, it is a lot easier to get to (say) $30 from $20 than from $10 as an example.
For sure it is a balance between sooner vs. later because of the "in process science" and other commercial considerations that will/could out vs the BP wanting to buy at a “reduced” pps (I didn’t say fire sale) vs. a much higher price that would be warranted when all is finalized.
Also, I would think that the BP’s that are interested don’t want the other players to get what Ariad has to offer and therefore a bidding war would be anticipated which moreover would both drive up the price and shorten the time frame (from now to the BO). All is interesting and a fascinating discussion that will only be confirmed when it actually happens of course. The points by all here who contribute are well taken, thankfully received and respected and without reproach.
One more question Vid…..does your "actuarial expertise" involve a Ouija Board? as all resources are vitally needed with this endeavor. (kidding). Most of all, we are in a good place and dealing from a place of strength, steady pps rise and more to come. IMHO