Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

The reason for PPHM's under valued PPS

If Wall St knows things like those below (and they ALWAYS know before you do) they do EVERYTHING to get the stock as cheap as possible. And EVERYTHING means EVERYTHING. That is not different for PPHM, a company with no creditors projecting profitability within 21 months and possibly holding the most valuable IP and pipelines in Immuno-Oncology (and other Immuno disciplines) around. Wall St knows the difference between set-back and a deathly incident. Many hope that retailers do not then you can play them.

From last weeks PPHM CC/Q: CEO King

On the mfg. front, it remains an extraordinarily busy time.

We have remained on track for initiating & completing mfg. campaigns, keeping us on track to meet our current FY revenue projections.

Our strategy for growing mfg. revenues remains on track as well, continuing to generate revenues in our Franklin facility which last year generated over $40mm in revenues, generate revenues from our new Myford facility, which is already booked well into next year and has another $40mm in revenue potential, and to bring online a new clinical production facility by mid next year which will allow us to continue introducing new clients into our business and to continue bringing in 2nd products from existing clients. The new facility will add another $30mm in revenue potential, and we have already identified a number of projects that can move into this facility as soon as it is completed.

Paul will discuss the Avid business in more detail, as we continue to deliver high quality products for our partners. [color=red]Our ultimate goal remains to reach overall profitability within the next 21 months, and Avid will be an important driver for achieving that goal, in combination with making strategic investments in our R&D while pursuing partnerships to help advance our programs.[/color]

You can already see these plans playing out, as we are on track to grow revenues significantly this year while simultaneously seeing a significant decrease in R&D spending during the quarter, even though we are continuing to advance our programs. I will now turn the call over to Joe for more details on our clinical dev. efforts.

1) Everybody asked for cut in cost. DONE (see above)

2) Everybody wants the pipelines to progress and leverage investment. Notice therefor how the profitability goal in the NEXT 21 months is only PARTIALLY ACHIEVED by Avid 3rd party revenue...so what is the other part that they count on?

and Avid will be an important driver for achieving that goal, in combination with making strategic investments in our R&D while pursuing partnerships to help advance our programs

I think that, within the strategy of positioning Bavituximab as the component that BPs can use to make SOC against a competitor in mono Immuno-Oncology, there are going to be upfront payments PLUS product delivery for PI. Possibly that is why they review ALSO the AstraZeneca deal, placing ALL BP's on a same floor: "Pay up-front and deliver your product for PI and you can do PII/PIII yourself." The Sunrise stop opened this possibility as a side effect.

3) Setting a profitability goal within 21 months does NOT fit the statements on this board that management wants a Reverse Split etc. If that is what they want then they would be better of saying that they are not going to be profitable the coming 10 years and if they suddenly are nobody would complain.

4) Avid's 40+40+30 Mil$ = 110Mil$, or production ABOVE 100Mil$ said by some it would take many years before Avid gets there. However RRDog once wrote that 100Mil$ was not so far off and apparently he was right. By the way 2nd products of EXISTING clients is called CUSTOMER SATISFACTION!

5) NOTE on the above: If Avid I runs 40Mil$ and Avid II was MORE then DOUBLING the capacity of Avid I, wouldn't it then be normal to expect Avid II to run about 80Mil$ ? Or is that just me over-simplifying things here? Or are they using 1/2 of Avid II's capacity for something else? What? Bavituximab? Exosome test? And isn't there a comparable problem with Avid III (25Ksqf) that as I understood was 25% bigger then Avid I (20Ksqf) and smaller then Avid II (40Ksqf). Shouldn't it then at least produce 40Mil$ as can Avid I. So something isn't told to us IMO :)
I didn't disclose anything did I, just looking and translating at the official PR transcript, all facts used in the above reasoning are public!

HOW SOLID IS ALL THIS
We are dealing with verifiable facts here. We know Avid I is there and we know the numbers from last annual. So Avid I yielding 40Mil$ is not a fantasy but a reality. Posters on here have posted pictures from Avid II's brand new facility and PPHM/Avid has won 2 awards for this facility and we know from the building owner that they do occupy the space they claim. And Avid III has been mentioned several times now, with target date-lines for commissioning, and now PPHM/Avid already identified business to move into it as soon as it is ready.

If PPHM reaches profitability as claimed that means the end of the ATM and leaves the company WITHOUT any creditors owning their Avid business 100%, owning the IP and pipelines 100% all unencumbered (and you will all soon know the value of the IP when you hear the upcoming presentations from Gerber and Wolchok's melanoma story in his presentation (I may have to write a separate post on this one but after my holidays I have some 'relational catching up to do :)' so i'll see when I get to that and if I can do it without crossing or hinting any possible up-coming PPHM plans/strategies. The clock ticks.

40+Mil$ cash, lower spending, increase revenue next Q due to Avid quarter shift, and PPHM managing to sell PPHMP at 3$ per common (see Quarter results) means there are parties that find 3$ per share equivalent OK or they wouldn't spend a mil$ buying it just for the 10.50%.

We are good if we look at the facts. We are death if we believe the nonsense that some spread around in e-magazine articles and boards. I prefer the facts.