Nicely laid out CP and in line with my conclusions as well.
Steady as she goes.
I've been meaning to put a few thoughts together and it seems that being lazy in initiating the act can actually sometimes be helpful! Your write-up helped shorten mine ;)
I appreciate the private and public messages asking for input and will add just a little color to the info already posted the last few hours (and weeks for that matter).
This can be summed up very quickly. Peregrine is doing what it can do, and should do, in the context of the industry's continuous evolution, changing focal points, speed of visible shifts in strategy and tactics and what looks like whack-a-mole like pop-up of 'today's' winners/experts looking like tomorrow's losers (Nivo is one of several that come to mind) which could be next week's winners again...
I keep thinking of how this is the first era, with the AIDS/HIV being a far second in terms of the profoundness of the evolution, where the speed and appetite of the FDA to review and approve the I/O class of Oncology medicines is well ahead of the ability of the researchers and companies to drive to conclusive results through clinical trials. That on it's own is not the profound shift. What makes this a nearly impossible field where great strides take place daily is that new research produces conclusions which end up fundamentally changing the direction of experimentation and clinical trials faster than those experiments and trials can be started or completed. This will mean that most companies and products being tested will fail and not due to efficacy or adverse impact. They will fail because the direction of the road will change while they're still paving theirs.
It's upside-down time in biotech where prior decades provided a window of years or more to verify, quantify and commercialize those products that met the requirements, before getting into a completely different mechanism, or major shift in understanding of how things work. It is now measured in months, weeks and sometimes days. And it's throwing everybody off.
This is where shorter trials, sophisticated assay and responder analysis, multi-combo and multi-mechanism approaches are being tested in volumes one can't imagine.
This is also where the availability of people who know what they're doing (all levels of research, oncologists/care givers, etc.), properly equipped labs, untainted pools of patients, etc. are critical and insufficiently available.
This is also why being selected for combos by organizations like NCCN and evaluated for well over 24 months (likely 36 or more) by powerhouses such as MSK, is a sign of interest that implies it's worthy of focus and attention where so many other places to put one's focus and attention exist.
Dr. Wolchok was directly involved in driving the development of Nivo and Ipi from the earliest days through commercialization. Does anyone think that his lab would waste time with a product that did not, at the least, show a curiously interesting set of possibilities?
MSK and NCCN scientists and management are interested in two things. Being first at revolutionary treatments (money, fame, recognition, etc.) and patient outcomes. No time to be wasted in a field where money for research is plentiful (many times can not be used up due to lack of resources/experts and facilities) but effective expertise is all but overloaded.
I've been patiently waiting to hear updates and not in any way concerned about 'burying' data and shifting the conversation. My main interest and concern was to see which activities and more so, institutions, will drop out. None have dropped out after nearly 7 months beyond the Sunrise stop. That says a lot and I'll leave it at that.
The fact that SK & co. are now talking in months (from 2 years 3 months ago to 21 months in this cc) says that the formula for profitability is (within reason) baked into a series of known and assumed events between now and June 2018. Nothing is guaranteed in life, that is for sure (with exception of death, as we know plenty who don't pay taxes) - but starting to count down in months is a strong sign of confidence. I'm directly familiar with several models of engagement taking place as we speak in the biotech world - specifically around emerging knowledge and products, and am curious if any of those (or new options) are being discussed with potential partners on a different scale than the previous 'rule the world' approach.
The next quarter looks to shape up in a very interesting manner in terms of a concentrated funnel of pertinent information both from within Peregrine as well as external and independent (MSK for one). Nothing here guarantees great data and we could see Wolchok come up and share a view of 'meh' results with some activity that can be helpful but not revolutionary. But the fact that it is worth his/labs time to deliver this information is encouraging. The fact that years of engagement now produce combo testing with Pembrolizumab for Head and Neck cancer (low response for PDx in general and very deadly disease) is a very good sign. The fact that Sunrise produced results of interest to be categorized as highly valuable for ESMO is very encouraging. And no... they are not hiding or squandering or faking the data. They are being very careful not to spit out something that is not well thought out and get roasted by all the 'experts' out there.
Same as before. All this CAN result in failure to show Bavi is better than anything else that is available now or is nearing commercialization in combo trials. But there is zero evidence that it already happened and all the evidence to show continued interest from well respected companies, institutions and individuals who have absolutely no time to waste.
For now - the stock will continue to be decoupled from it's potential for reasons I don't know but honestly don't care (mostly because I can;t change it..) We all know manipulation exists and is very prevalent in the stock market and for a variety of reasons. Those that can do it - can inflict quite the damage. It's on the 'why' that I will not speculate. This company will fail or succeed on proving it has something worthy to purchase and will likely be merged/bought out at that time.
Best,
MH
