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Re: LearnToTrade post# 6581

Tuesday, 08/30/2016 10:58:05 AM

Tuesday, August 30, 2016 10:58:05 AM

Post# of 41600
I've shorted many stocks and have no problem with shorts whatsoever.

That said, this is not a stock I'd short here for the following reasons which are not opinions as much as they are facts:

1. The stock is heavily followed. There are 14,400 + followers on StockTwits. That's in insane amount of retail buying power on a microcap stock, just waiting to pounce on news.

2. FDA approval of Cascade is not a question of "if" but a question of "when". This is apparent if you review the conference call webcast. Cascade is specifically mentioned...and they are working with FDA on the specifics of product labeling. If you haven't listened to the webcast from 8/11 you might want to:
http://www.investorcalendar.com/event/175221#

3. Approval in China via the CFDA is also pending. This may also happen at any time. As you should know, CFDA approval = a contract that includes more sales in the first 24 months than AMDA has had in it's history.

4. The many uses and inherent advantages of of Silicon Nitride in orthopedics,dentistry, and even 3D printing are only now beginning to be realized check this out: Silicon Nitride Biomaterial Gets 3D Print Treatment for the First Time Ever

A large 3D printing company like 3D Systems (DDD) or Stratasys (SSYS) with $1-$2 billion market caps would think nothing of snapping up Amedica for 2-3X current share price. That's how they grow, via aggressive acquisitions. They've snapped up titanium power production companies, and (very possibly) could be looking for Silicon Nitride powder applications and producers even now.

If, as a short, you aren't aware that AMDA is the ONLY manufacturer of medical grade silicon nitride and that they have a wide patent moat to protect them in this respect, then you should.

I know a thing or two about 3D printing- write for several organizations (Engineering.com, 3DprintingIndustry.com, my own blog-occasionally, etc.) and have been a speaker at conferences about investing in 3D printing around the globe.

Do I think AMDA could be bought out by a 3D Systems of Stratasys at 2-3X current market cap? Yes. easily.

5. You don't get a chance to cover in a buyout. Once announced, trading is halted and re-opens at buyout price. That could be $3, $4, who knows. A buyout (regardless of FDA approval) is not just a remote possibility imo...especialy related to the potential of 3D printing, and it could F up a short very seriously in a heartbeat with zero chance to cover except at buyout price.

I could go on -

I've posted many times how I feel about this management team. This management is terrible at communicating with shareholders, and has bumbled and fumbled with reverse splits and dilution for quite some time looking back at their history. But that should be a thing of the past looking at where they are in the development cycle.

What they have done a respectable job at is making the organization run more efficiently by trimming a lot of expenses, fat, waste. Once sales uptick, this will have a strong impact on the bottom line. Even if you take away all of the above "dangerous to short here" indicators, the company could well be on the road to a revenue and bottom line recovery.
Remember, they do have about $20M in sales annually, and just came out of a financing- need for immediate cash leading to dilution is slim to none for the foreseeable future.

So- my (somewhat lengthy) point is:

Short at your own risk.



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