Economic reports for next week:
Mon 8/29
Personal Income & Spending for Jul – These reports use data from the monthly employment report to gauge income from wages and salaries. Personal income is also sometimes used to forecast future consumer spending.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) for Jul – PCE includes durable goods and nondurable goods which are directly influenced by the retail sales reports; and services. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Tue 8/30
Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Jun – This index measures the change in the average prices of single-family, residential real estate across a broad section of 20 major cities in the US.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Aug – There are several other confidence measures, such as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and they don’t always agree. Gasoline prices and stock market performance tend to have the biggest impact on these measures.
Wed 8/31
ADP Employment Change for Aug – The ADP report is based on information from approximately 400,000 U.S. businesses and 23 million U.S. employees in the private sector. While the ADP report is often looked at as a predictor of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) nonfarm payroll report, ADP data does not include government jobs, so there is sometimes a significant difference between the two.
Chicago PMI for Aug – This report is a gauge of business conditions within manufacturing and service firms in the Chicago area. A reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Pending Home Sales Index for Jul – This report measures actual contracts signed, whereas existing sales (reported last week) measures actual closings, so this one is slightly more forward looking. This one will only affect the market adversely if it comes in very low.
Thu 9/1
Weekly Jobless Claims - For the week ending 8/20/16, claims were down 1k to 261k, after being down 4k the prior week. The 4-week moving average now stands at 264k, down 1k from the prior week. With this change, the 4-week moving average is now 8k above the new 43-year low set 17 weeks ago.
Productivity and Costs for Q2 – This report measures the efficiency of the work required to produce a product or provide a service, and is an important component in overall employment trends and corporate profit margins. However, it has been quite volatile historically and typically has little impact on the market.
Construction Spending for Jul – Construction spending measures new overall construction activity. This report can predict future activity in housing and commodities, which can be a sign of economic growth.
ISM Manufacturing Index for Aug - The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index tracks economic data from companies in the manufacturing sector. An increasing value is usually perceived as bullish for equities because it implies that profits in the manufacturing sector are on the rise.
Fri 9/2
Monthly Employment Reports for Aug – This is the biggest group of reports each month. It includes: Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek and the Labor Participation Rate.
International Trade (Trade Balance) for Jul – This report tracks trends in the exports and imports of goods and services. Exports can indicate economic expansion both in the U.S. and abroad. Imports can indicate growing domestic demand. However, this is a lagging report so it rarely has any impact on the market.
Factory Orders for Jul – This report includes both durable and non-durable goods orders, as well as wholesale and retail inventories. Like the construction report, it usually doesn’t impact the market much.
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