Vid and Jess, I can understand both of your points of view and I think is all about "perspective" and "perception".
Perspective
When we were at $4.37 not long ago, thinking that $10.60 would be achieved took some imagination and now being at $10.60 (and holding), going to $18-$20 IMHO is the same sort of mental exercise. It all comes down to where you are looking at it from. Also as you pointed out Vid, some shareholders (depending on their tenure and going through hell and back with the crash) have a totally different take than people like me who have been here coming up on 3 years. Each to their own and I can see that getting out before a BO at $18-$20 would be very enticing. Risk tolerance is impacted for every individual by so many factors....goals, history, patience and a lot more both personal and Ariad related as well. Also, I do think that the crash has created an exaggerated perspective whereby time seems of the essence in escaping vs. really looking at the potential value. To some, 2 months is an eternity and to others 2 years seems reasonable.
Perception
I would think that Denner's job is to become a master at creating a perception/image along with performance of Ariad including science, stability (not being cash poor), partnerships, strong management , a lot of options (preventing a fire sale ), the ability to get the pps up thus a potential buyer wants to buy early (less $) than later (more $) and more. My hope is that we could have a perfect storm where in short period of time (sometime in the relative near future) many aspects of the factors above would come together and create a unique situation as a convergence of sorts where a pre BO pps would be a launch pad to maximization.
Certainly all of this is conjecture yet my opinion is that it is going to happen in a 5-9 month window because that is the time necessary to create the setup in not jumping the gun (there is plenty of time) and at the same time not allowing negative factors (economy, M&A environment, less cheap money) to intervene
As always, IMHO. And so good to see really great posts here with so much valuable information. Thanks
AI
