Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Elmer Phud]

Joe - Can you summarize what your opinion is? (just to see how it differs from the prediction I came up with). You can fill in your data in my table.

I don't want to predict actual numbers because the variables are too great. First off, I think Athlon yield is probably quite poor because for maximum frequency AMD has to target their transistor channels tighter than they can reasonably control. This leaves in question how much capacity is left for Opteron/A64. Concurrently I think Opteron/A64 suffer the same frequency problem and targeting fast transistors just compounds the yield problems inherent in a SOI process. Because of Intel's runaway frequency headroom (still more frequency left on .13u IMHO) and the impending introduction of Prescott on 90nm, AMD is in a very very tough position. As I've said, AMD process engineers aren't flakes. In all likelyhood AMD could produce high volumes of slower products with low defect densities, but because the market doesn't want them they have no choice but to push their process to the ragged edge and that means significant yield loss over and above the expected lower SOI yield compared to a similar bulk process. 9 Metal layers are 50% more than Intel's 6. I would think that means that any metal and via related yield loss would be at least 50% higher for AMD, maybe more (process experts feel free to jump in here).

So I don't want to try and predict volumes, just suffice to say that they will be lower than they would otherwise be if demand were not the limiter. If demand is the limiter then I don't think that is any better news.