Tuesday, August 23, 2016 8:13:30 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 08/22 2016 EOD
I'm remaining, hesitantly, near-term bullish and strongly longer-term bullish. The reason for the hesitation is the early signs of short-term profit taking has appeared in my unconventional stuff and conventional TA has two overbought and two near-overbought oscillators. I expect if we don't start to re-trace, or at least pause, tomorrow we'll have four overbought indications in the oscillators. We do have to bear in mind that we can enter overbought and remain there for extended periods but it would be unusual for $CPST.
I do suspect that the PR effect will go at least one more day though and allow us to take a stab at the $1.67/70 potential resistance area. But if profit-taking is occurring it will be a tough slog I think.
Today we got a nice PR Capstone's Russian Distributor, BPC Engineering, Secures Another C1000 Signature Series Project and Executes a New Three Year Distribution Agreement that did more than just what the headline mentions (btw, expected to ship in Q2 - that means before end of September), but also increased the premium to 20% which will apply to the past due amount.
Today was similar to what we've seen when I think the warrant holders (a.k.a "left coasties") are in the market. How much was due to the PR I can't say, but we had both good volume (up 155.77% over Friday to ~732K) and VWAP improvement along with a higher range. We opened at $1.58, dropped down to do $1.56/7 9:35-10:14, moved up to $1.60 by 10:22 and then settled into an almost exclusively $1.58/9 range for the rest of the day, with a small excursion to $1.57/8 11:23-:26 and a couple near-$1.60 stabs later. We closed nicely on a buy of ~2K at $1.59.
There were two pre-market buys, 500 for $1.56 and 1,960 for $1.59.
B/a at 9:28 was 100:500 $1.54/9 and at open went 2K:2.9K $1.57/8.
09:30-10:14 opened the day with a 7,647 buy and 1.5K more at $1.58. Then came 9:31's 610 $1.58->$1.57->$1.58, 9:34's b/a 1.7K:5.4K $1.57/8, 9:34's 100 $1.58, 9:35's ~1.9K $1.57, 9:36's 400 $1.56, 9:37's 42 $1.57, 9:38's 100 $1.57, 9:44's b/a 7.5K:21K $1.56/7, 9:45's 1.3K $1.57, 9:48's 100 $1.57, 9:50's b/a 7K:20K $1.56/7, 9:51's 15.7K $1.5650/$1.57, 9:53's 100 $1.57, 9:58's b/a 14.1K:18.5K $1.56/7, and 10:00's 3K $1.5601. This was followed by very low/no-volume $1.56/7, 10:05's b/a 10.6K:19.7K $1.56/7. 10:14's 9.8K 1.565 ended the period.
10:15-10:22 made a short quick step up doing 10:15's ~69.5K $1.57->$1.58 and ended the period on 10:22's ~20.6K $1.5896->$1.5850/$1.59->$1.59/60->$1.59.
10:23-11:21 began low-volume $1.58/9 on 10:23's ~9.5K $1.58/9. Volume switched to very low/no-volume ~10:34. B/a at 10:48 was 25.9K:9.5K $1.58/9. Volume was interrupted by 10:54-:56's ~77.5K (incl. 25K $1.59 blk) $1.58/$1.59. B/a at 11:04 was 10.1K:5.6K $1.58/9. 11:21's 1,170 $1.58 ended the period.
11:22-11:26, after a no-trades minute, did a short high-volume drop and recovery on 11:23-:26's ~46.8K $1.58->$1.5750->$1.57->$1.57/8->$1.58->$1.59->$1.5850.
11:27-16:00 returned to very low/no-volume $1.58/9 on 11:27's 980 $1.59. B/a at 11:45 7.7K:10.9K $1.58/9, 11:58 42.5K:6.6K $1.58/9. Volume was interrupted by 11:58-12:02's ~80.3K (incl $1.59 x 12.5K x 2) $1.58/$1.59. Range narrowed to ~1.585x/$1.59 at 12:02. B/a at 12:05 was ~10.4K:4.5K $1.58/9, 12:14 14.4K:800 $1.58/9, 12:59 16.7K:1.6K $1.58/9. Volume was again interrupted by 13:16-:17s ~65.9K (incl $1.59 x 12.5K x 2) $1.5850/$1.5950. B/a at 13:18 was 10.9K:2.5K $1.58/9, 13:56 13.9K:800 $1.58/9. Range widened to $1.58/9 again around 14:07. B/a at 14:18 was 15.6K:600 $1.58/9, 14:34 19.2K:3.6K $1.58/8, 14:52 16.4K:3.9K $1.58/9, 15:35 17.7K:2.4K $1.58/9. Volume was interrupted again by 15:45-:51's ~71.5K $1.58/9 and volume switched to low-volume. B/a at 15:58 was 9.9K:6.5K $1.58/9. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.7K $1.5850->$1.58->$1.59->$1.5850 and 16:00's 2,024 buy for $1.59.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 27 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 237,384, 32.43% of day's volume, with a $1.5864 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 26 larger trades totaling 229,737, 31.39% of day's volume, with a $1.5866 VWAP. I like these larger trades today - good count, high percentage of day's volume, several "larger larger trades" and VWAP higher than the day's $1.5853 VWAP. This suggests retail were the buyers and were in strongly, which we haven't seen for a while.
Sentiment may be starting to turn from apathy, or even bearishness, to good interest and maybe even bullishness. Haven't seen much of that for a while.
This wouldn't mean straight up though - I would still expect somewhat normal wave action as various short-term traders lock in profits and shorters start taking an interest again when price gets high enough. This latter group may not be as aggressive as in the past though because of the apparent start of a strong recovery in revenues as BPC has apparently began returning to their former level of activity and the additional markets CPST is addressing begin producing more strongly over time.
That then leaves cost control and margin improvement, both manageable by CPST if they pay attention and exercise discipline, along with capital raises as the major variables investors must consider. The cost control and margin factors will likely determine the timing and size of any capital raise, if needed.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Time for a new (not as) minimal chart.
On my minimal chart I had to expand it to 120 days to keep a couple older points in sight. I added Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) with smoothing periods of 13 and 48.5 thanks to a suggestion and link from On_pphire at stocktwits.com.
We topped at one of our expected (weak?) resistance points, $1.59/60 (upper horizontal green line), on a higher open, low, high and close with very good rising volume. We also traded, for the first time recently, completely above the former $1.53/4 resistance (now potential support) today. I don't know how strong our current resistance is in the face of a short string of positive PRs, but I'm expecting at least a pause here and maybe even a re-trace to the (now) support at $1.53/4.
If that doesn't quickly appear, we should immediately begin advancing toward the $1.67/70 resistance (orange horizontal line).
We're still pushing the upper Bollinger limit. This is the third day of that and history would suggest we would either quickly withdraw from it or we would pause and it would move up and away from our current range. With the lower limit falling, the indication is for higher volatility and a retrace to the mid-point, at least, could occur.
On my one-year chart, thanks to the PR impetus today, we have the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs all rising and in the "right order" as the 10-day crossed above the 20-day. Moreover, today completed the cross of the 10 and 20-day SMAs above the falling 200-day SMA!
The oscillators I watch, yesterday mixed, all improved today and all but accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are above neutral. A concern is presented in that Williams %R and MFI (untrusted by me) are overbought while both RSI and full stochastic are very near so and likely to be so if tomorrow exhibits the same traits as today exhibited.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4413 and $1.5803 ($1.4524 and $1.5584 yesterday), have switched to diverging, suggesting some coming volatility, likely in the next couple days. The mid-point is still rising so the degree of re-trace expected right now would be small.
All the above needs to be viewed in the light of rising and strong volume. In fact, the volume relative to recent norms is high enough to suggests exhaustion is possible. But that's offset by the fact that a recent string of PRs may have begun to turn market sentiment. we'll have to wait an see.
All in, I think there's a bit more run left in this move, but it's getting stretched and profit-taking should bring at least a pause and maybe a re-trace back to $1.53/4, hopefully after we make a stab to get $1.67/70. But a pause here wouldn't be a surprise either.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing today, and the buy percentage is outstanding. With $CPST history I immediately become leery of that latter item. That feeling is ameliorated by the fact that it was associated with the latest in a recent series of positive PRs, it's accompanied by an established trend of rising VWAPs and the averages of those moves, and the fact that I've convinced myself that when I see what I wished for I should try harder to believe it can be real.
The short percentage is very close to what I feel should be the upper end of my desired range (needs re-check). I suspect this is a sign of short-term traders beginning to lock in profits and would expect that behavior to continue for a few days, producing a pause or even a move lower for a few days.
These two, in conjunction, still suggest near-term bullishness but are at what I think are limits to continue unabated. I would like to see continued appreciation tomorrow combined with a reduction in short and buy percentage, but not too much reduction in either. We want to see normalcy in the behavior of short-term traders, who should be seriously considering locking in profits, while bullish longer-term investors are willing to bid at higher prices. This should reduce buy percentage. Short percentage is more problematic as we don't know if a large part of the sold shares will have settled or not, are intra/inter-broker or not, etc.
The spread contracted and is suggestive of a slowing in the rise now. This would be in line with my concerns about the buy and short percentage I guess. A brief pause, at least, seems likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings continued for the second day the best readings since I started tracking this, holding at 7 negatives and 17 positives. Change since 07/19 is $0.1350, 9.31%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.3806%, 0.5715%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, 0.2227%, 0.4407%, and 0.3111%.
Note that the average change over the 24 days exhibits the first signs of slowing. This partly due to the lower values falling off the tail of the period.
All in, I'm looking for at least a short pause in the rise in the next couple of days, allowing for another day or two for the effects of the recent PR to run it's course. A leg lower, to maybe the $1.53/4 level, would not be surprising and should not be concerning.
Bill
I'm remaining, hesitantly, near-term bullish and strongly longer-term bullish. The reason for the hesitation is the early signs of short-term profit taking has appeared in my unconventional stuff and conventional TA has two overbought and two near-overbought oscillators. I expect if we don't start to re-trace, or at least pause, tomorrow we'll have four overbought indications in the oscillators. We do have to bear in mind that we can enter overbought and remain there for extended periods but it would be unusual for $CPST.
I do suspect that the PR effect will go at least one more day though and allow us to take a stab at the $1.67/70 potential resistance area. But if profit-taking is occurring it will be a tough slog I think.
Today we got a nice PR Capstone's Russian Distributor, BPC Engineering, Secures Another C1000 Signature Series Project and Executes a New Three Year Distribution Agreement that did more than just what the headline mentions (btw, expected to ship in Q2 - that means before end of September), but also increased the premium to 20% which will apply to the past due amount.
Today was similar to what we've seen when I think the warrant holders (a.k.a "left coasties") are in the market. How much was due to the PR I can't say, but we had both good volume (up 155.77% over Friday to ~732K) and VWAP improvement along with a higher range. We opened at $1.58, dropped down to do $1.56/7 9:35-10:14, moved up to $1.60 by 10:22 and then settled into an almost exclusively $1.58/9 range for the rest of the day, with a small excursion to $1.57/8 11:23-:26 and a couple near-$1.60 stabs later. We closed nicely on a buy of ~2K at $1.59.
There were two pre-market buys, 500 for $1.56 and 1,960 for $1.59.
B/a at 9:28 was 100:500 $1.54/9 and at open went 2K:2.9K $1.57/8.
09:30-10:14 opened the day with a 7,647 buy and 1.5K more at $1.58. Then came 9:31's 610 $1.58->$1.57->$1.58, 9:34's b/a 1.7K:5.4K $1.57/8, 9:34's 100 $1.58, 9:35's ~1.9K $1.57, 9:36's 400 $1.56, 9:37's 42 $1.57, 9:38's 100 $1.57, 9:44's b/a 7.5K:21K $1.56/7, 9:45's 1.3K $1.57, 9:48's 100 $1.57, 9:50's b/a 7K:20K $1.56/7, 9:51's 15.7K $1.5650/$1.57, 9:53's 100 $1.57, 9:58's b/a 14.1K:18.5K $1.56/7, and 10:00's 3K $1.5601. This was followed by very low/no-volume $1.56/7, 10:05's b/a 10.6K:19.7K $1.56/7. 10:14's 9.8K 1.565 ended the period.
10:15-10:22 made a short quick step up doing 10:15's ~69.5K $1.57->$1.58 and ended the period on 10:22's ~20.6K $1.5896->$1.5850/$1.59->$1.59/60->$1.59.
10:23-11:21 began low-volume $1.58/9 on 10:23's ~9.5K $1.58/9. Volume switched to very low/no-volume ~10:34. B/a at 10:48 was 25.9K:9.5K $1.58/9. Volume was interrupted by 10:54-:56's ~77.5K (incl. 25K $1.59 blk) $1.58/$1.59. B/a at 11:04 was 10.1K:5.6K $1.58/9. 11:21's 1,170 $1.58 ended the period.
11:22-11:26, after a no-trades minute, did a short high-volume drop and recovery on 11:23-:26's ~46.8K $1.58->$1.5750->$1.57->$1.57/8->$1.58->$1.59->$1.5850.
11:27-16:00 returned to very low/no-volume $1.58/9 on 11:27's 980 $1.59. B/a at 11:45 7.7K:10.9K $1.58/9, 11:58 42.5K:6.6K $1.58/9. Volume was interrupted by 11:58-12:02's ~80.3K (incl $1.59 x 12.5K x 2) $1.58/$1.59. Range narrowed to ~1.585x/$1.59 at 12:02. B/a at 12:05 was ~10.4K:4.5K $1.58/9, 12:14 14.4K:800 $1.58/9, 12:59 16.7K:1.6K $1.58/9. Volume was again interrupted by 13:16-:17s ~65.9K (incl $1.59 x 12.5K x 2) $1.5850/$1.5950. B/a at 13:18 was 10.9K:2.5K $1.58/9, 13:56 13.9K:800 $1.58/9. Range widened to $1.58/9 again around 14:07. B/a at 14:18 was 15.6K:600 $1.58/9, 14:34 19.2K:3.6K $1.58/8, 14:52 16.4K:3.9K $1.58/9, 15:35 17.7K:2.4K $1.58/9. Volume was interrupted again by 15:45-:51's ~71.5K $1.58/9 and volume switched to low-volume. B/a at 15:58 was 9.9K:6.5K $1.58/9. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.7K $1.5850->$1.58->$1.59->$1.5850 and 16:00's 2,024 buy for $1.59.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 27 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 237,384, 32.43% of day's volume, with a $1.5864 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 26 larger trades totaling 229,737, 31.39% of day's volume, with a $1.5866 VWAP. I like these larger trades today - good count, high percentage of day's volume, several "larger larger trades" and VWAP higher than the day's $1.5853 VWAP. This suggests retail were the buyers and were in strongly, which we haven't seen for a while.
Sentiment may be starting to turn from apathy, or even bearishness, to good interest and maybe even bullishness. Haven't seen much of that for a while.
The VWAP, buy %, where most of the larger trades occurred and the VWAP in the 16:00-ending period being the highest of the day all seem strongly positive to me. We need to see if this develops into a near-term trend. If my TFH thesis about the warrant holders moving price, with cooperation by CPST management in producing good quantity and quality of order PRs (which they've been doing), is correct we should see such a trend.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:04 2460 $1.5600 $1.5900 $3,896.40 $1.5839 0.34% 100.00%
10:14 55967 $1.5600 $1.5800 $87,838.36 $1.5695 7.65% 63.27% Incl 09:30 $1.5800 7,647 09:51 $1.5700 6,400
10:22 112339 $1.5650 $1.6000 $177,373.41 $1.5789 15.35% 61.24% Incl 10:15 $1.5700 6,200 6,668 $1.5800 5,000
11:21 171828 $1.5800 $1.5900 $273,024.91 $1.5889 23.48% 70.49% Incl 10:23 $1.5900 5,361 10:40 $1.5900 10,000
10:43 $1.5899 4,700 5,300
10:54 $1.5900 4,449 4,500 5,250 6,000
10:56 $1.5900 25,000
11:26 46750 $1.5700 $1.5900 $73,829.77 $1.5792 6.39% 68.80% Incl 11:23 $1.5800 5,000 25,000
16:00 338879 $1.5800 $1.5950 $538,504.23 $1.5891 46.30% 70.51% Incl 11:59 $1.5900 7,909 12:01 $1.5900 12,500
12:01 $1.5900 12,500 12:16 $1.5882 5,000
13:10 $1.5840 4,900 13:16 $1.5900 5,700
13:17 $1.5900 12,500 12,500
15:45 $1.5886 6,400 15:46 $1.5900 12,500
15:47 $1.5900 12,500
This wouldn't mean straight up though - I would still expect somewhat normal wave action as various short-term traders lock in profits and shorters start taking an interest again when price gets high enough. This latter group may not be as aggressive as in the past though because of the apparent start of a strong recovery in revenues as BPC has apparently began returning to their former level of activity and the additional markets CPST is addressing begin producing more strongly over time.
That then leaves cost control and margin improvement, both manageable by CPST if they pay attention and exercise discipline, along with capital raises as the major variables investors must consider. The cost control and margin factors will likely determine the timing and size of any capital raise, if needed.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
These kind of movements, especially the volume, suggest continued near-term bullishness. The volume says there is strength in the move up.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.94% 1.96% 1.27% 2.58% 155.77%
Prior 3.33% 2.00% 0.00% 0.65% -44.13%
Time for a new (not as) minimal chart.
On my minimal chart I had to expand it to 120 days to keep a couple older points in sight. I added Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) with smoothing periods of 13 and 48.5 thanks to a suggestion and link from On_pphire at stocktwits.com.
We topped at one of our expected (weak?) resistance points, $1.59/60 (upper horizontal green line), on a higher open, low, high and close with very good rising volume. We also traded, for the first time recently, completely above the former $1.53/4 resistance (now potential support) today. I don't know how strong our current resistance is in the face of a short string of positive PRs, but I'm expecting at least a pause here and maybe even a re-trace to the (now) support at $1.53/4.
If that doesn't quickly appear, we should immediately begin advancing toward the $1.67/70 resistance (orange horizontal line).
We're still pushing the upper Bollinger limit. This is the third day of that and history would suggest we would either quickly withdraw from it or we would pause and it would move up and away from our current range. With the lower limit falling, the indication is for higher volatility and a retrace to the mid-point, at least, could occur.
On my one-year chart, thanks to the PR impetus today, we have the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs all rising and in the "right order" as the 10-day crossed above the 20-day. Moreover, today completed the cross of the 10 and 20-day SMAs above the falling 200-day SMA!
The oscillators I watch, yesterday mixed, all improved today and all but accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are above neutral. A concern is presented in that Williams %R and MFI (untrusted by me) are overbought while both RSI and full stochastic are very near so and likely to be so if tomorrow exhibits the same traits as today exhibited.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4413 and $1.5803 ($1.4524 and $1.5584 yesterday), have switched to diverging, suggesting some coming volatility, likely in the next couple days. The mid-point is still rising so the degree of re-trace expected right now would be small.
All the above needs to be viewed in the light of rising and strong volume. In fact, the volume relative to recent norms is high enough to suggests exhaustion is possible. But that's offset by the fact that a recent string of PRs may have begun to turn market sentiment. we'll have to wait an see.
All in, I think there's a bit more run left in this move, but it's getting stretched and profit-taking should bring at least a pause and maybe a re-trace back to $1.53/4, hopefully after we make a stab to get $1.67/70. But a pause here wouldn't be a surprise either.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, a good thing today, and the buy percentage is outstanding. With $CPST history I immediately become leery of that latter item. That feeling is ameliorated by the fact that it was associated with the latest in a recent series of positive PRs, it's accompanied by an established trend of rising VWAPs and the averages of those moves, and the fact that I've convinced myself that when I see what I wished for I should try harder to believe it can be real.
The short percentage is very close to what I feel should be the upper end of my desired range (needs re-check). I suspect this is a sign of short-term traders beginning to lock in profits and would expect that behavior to continue for a few days, producing a pause or even a move lower for a few days.
These two, in conjunction, still suggest near-term bullishness but are at what I think are limits to continue unabated. I would like to see continued appreciation tomorrow combined with a reduction in short and buy percentage, but not too much reduction in either. We want to see normalcy in the behavior of short-term traders, who should be seriously considering locking in profits, while bullish longer-term investors are willing to bid at higher prices. This should reduce buy percentage. Short percentage is more problematic as we don't know if a large part of the sold shares will have settled or not, are intra/inter-broker or not, etc.
The spread contracted and is suggestive of a slowing in the rise now. This would be in line with my concerns about the buy and short percentage I guess. A brief pause, at least, seems likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings continued for the second day the best readings since I started tracking this, holding at 7 negatives and 17 positives. Change since 07/19 is $0.1350, 9.31%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.3806%, 0.5715%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, 0.2227%, 0.4407%, and 0.3111%.
Note that the average change over the 24 days exhibits the first signs of slowing. This partly due to the lower values falling off the tail of the period.
All in, I'm looking for at least a short pause in the rise in the next couple of days, allowing for another day or two for the effects of the recent PR to run it's course. A leg lower, to maybe the $1.53/4 level, would not be surprising and should not be concerning.
Bill
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