Thursday, August 18, 2016 9:24:23 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 08/17 2016 EOD
In aggregate, looks like continued consolidation with near-term weakness replacing the near-term strengthening suggested yesterday and the prior days. The re-trace I expected several days back looks like it is finally here. However, volume fell and that suggests that today's move lower lacks strength. I think we are rolling over ATM and would expect a few days of continued price weakness with falling volume before we try to challenge $1.54 again.
Today's intra-day broke the recent flattish trend, but only by a little bit. After opening at $1.52 it went sideways at mostly low/no-volume $1.51/2 through 10:22, dropped to $1.50 on 10:23's ~27K to begin a mostly low/no-volume sideways $1.50/1 with a rising, by fractional pennies, low until 11:07's 12.6K pushed to $1.52. Then a low/no-volume $1.51/2, again with lows rising by fractional pennies, occurred through 12:43. Then we saw extremely low/no-volume $1.52 occurred through 13:39. A higher-volume pop up to $1.52/3 on 13:40's ~18K put trading into a low/no-volume $1.51/2 through 13:57, a mostly high/medium-volume $1.51/3 through 14:13, and then a very low/no-volume $1.51/2 through 15:58.
15:59-16:00 ruined a somewhat reasonable day by dropping into the $1.50 area and closing at $1.50, the low of the day established in the opening moments of trading.
The b/a behavior was more normal today with little sign of the apparently hidden inexhaustible supply of offers at any price level. We actually saw small, medium and large imbalances to the sell side that changed with some reasonable consistency with what happened in the market. I think that's good regardless that it did produce a raging bull trading pattern.
The buy percentage also moved much more normally, which means of course that we wouldn't see a flat at a high price day. I don't really mind - much better to see consistency of behavior supported by metrics than things that leave me wondering what's going on.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:22 opened the day with a 951 unknown for $1.52. Then came 9:32's 1K $1.52, 9:33's b/a of 7.2K:300 $1.51/2, 9:35's 4.2K $1.52, 9:36's 1.4K $1.52->$1.51 (300), 9:37's 4.5K $1.52->$1.5150->$1.52, 9:38's b/a of 7K:2.1K $1.51/2, 9:39's 16.4K $1.5101->$1.52->$1.51->$1.52, 9:40's b/a of 1.4K:3.2K $1.51/2, and 9:43's 150 $1.51. Then began very low/no-volume $1.51/2.
B/a at 9:45 was 2.3K:3.5K $1.51/2, 9:56 1.3K:4K $1.51/2, 10:10's 4.9K:3.4K $1.50/2, 10:16's 800:3.3K $1.51/2. 10:22's 100 $1.52 ended the period.
10:23-11:06 had initial b/a 800:23.4K $1.51/2 and began very low/no-volume $1.5001/$1.51 on 10:24's ~27K (incl 10.8K $1.51 blk trd) $1.51->$1.52->$1.51->$1.50. B/a at 10:27 was 2.7K:2.1K $1.50/1, 10:46 4.6K:1K $1.50/1, 11:00 5.2K:600 $1.50/1, 11:05 4.5K:100 $1.50/1. 11:06's 1K $1.5010 ended the period.
11:07-13:32 began very low/no-volume $1.51/$1.5150 on 11:07's 12.6K $1.51->$1.52->$1.51. B/a at 11:13 was 500:2.8K $1.51/2, 11:27 3.9K:2.8K $1.51/2, 11:46 2.6K:3.9K $1.51/2. 11:54 expanded range to $1.51/2 and most trades began going at $1.52. B/a at 11:55 was 3.4K:3.8K $1.51/2, 12:30 3.5K:4.5K $1.51/2, 12:44 3.4K:4.5K $1.51/2, 12:57 4K:4.1K $1.51/2, 13:24 3.7K:3.6K $1.51/2. 13:32's 119 $1.52 ended the period.
13:33-14:09, after seven no-trades minutes, through 13:58 did low/no-volume $1.51/3 and through 14:13 did mixed high/medium-volume (mostly). All this began on 13:40-:43's ~28.6K $1.52->$1.5250->$1.52->$1.53->$1.52->$1.5201->$1.5250->$1.53->$1.5250. 13:52's b/a was 5K:1.2K $1.51/2, 13:58's 4.8K:1.7K $1.51/2. Volume was interrupted by 13:59's 25.1K (incl 25K $1.52 blk trd) $1.52. B/a at 14:03 was 4.1K:2K $1.51/2. 14:09's 100 $1.53 ended the period.
14:10-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.51/2 on 14:10's 4.1K $1.52. B/a at 14:20 was 5.8K:1K $1.51/2, 14:49 7.7K:100 $1.51/2, 14:55 5.6K:2.9K $1.51/2, 15:17 4.1K:13.2K $1.51/2, 15:23 4.4K:13.1K $1.51/2, 15:40 5K:13.3K $1.51/2, 15:55 2.9K:13K $1.51/2, 15:57 8.9K:13.4K $1.51/2. The period and day ended on 15:59's ~10.7K $1.51->$1.5199->$1.51->$1.50 and 16:00's 200 $1.50.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 106,948, 44.30% of day's volume, with a $1.5178 VWAP. For the day's trade volume, the count is not extremely out of line but the percentage of day's volume is excessive. The VWAP being above the day's $1.5164 combined with a buy percentage down in the mid-4x% range (see below) suggests some (likely?) non-retail participants decided today was a good exit point. Notice in the following though that a couple "larger larger trades" constitute about a third of the larger trades volume and skewed the results.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart yesterday we finally got above $1.52 and challenged $1.54 but failed to penetrate it and I said { ... I still think we will do so. } With the volume lower on a down day there's still that possibility. However, the prior challenge resulted in a penetration for five days before the re-trace started and ATM we have a lower high for this leg up. This makes me think we've started another roll over to do a leg down, which I had been expecting to come a few days prior. Combined with the intra-day behavior now returning to a more normal M.O. I believe the near-term will finally produce the small re-trace I had been expecting.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band seems to support this is the upper limit went from flat to falling while the lower limit went from flat to rising, but at a lower rate than the upper limit is falling. This moves the mid-point lower and suggests we'll be moving lower to meet or go below it.
This all goes counter to yesterday's { Anyway, higher open, low, high and close along with challenging $1.54 again on strong rising volume suggests we'll get through $1.54 tomorrow. Then all we need is confirmation the following day. ... What all that means to me is we should soon exit short-term consolidation to the up side. }
An obvious fail there unless "soon" comes into play with another push up instead of going in the direction currently suggested on this chart. Again, the falling volume offers that possibility but I would expect at least a couple consecutive days of weakening in both price and volume before that would happen.
On my one-year chart the 10-SMA weakened slightly while the 20-day is still rising. The 50-day is almost flat. If our range holds here, unexpected by me, the 10-day will fall another four days and the 20-day will rise another three days. The 50-day would fall one day, go flat for a day and then continue rising.
Repeating, I don't expect range to hold static though.
The oscillators I watch, which all improved yesterday, today all weakened and full stochastic exited overbought. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum and full stochastic are still slightly above neutral. The others are below neutral. This is suggesting more near-term weakness I think.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4452 and $1.5533 ($1.4426 and $1.5635 yesterday) are converging with a falling mid-point.
All in, only the falling volume offers hope we won't continue to see near-term weakness. Everything else suggests a near-term increasing weakness.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions. The short percentage is near the low end of what I think is normal (needs re-check) and the buy percentage is in what has been a normal range for this symbol for a long time. That reading has given both up and down moves and sans some coordination with short percentage and other factors doesn't offer much guidance. We need those 50%+ readings to see sustained appreciation.
The spread widened but is still in a range that I think suggests consolidation - price may continue to weaken but right now it looks like it's suggesting moves within normal consolidation behavior.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again held steady at 9 negatives and 15 positives. Change since 07/14 is $0.1311, 9.47% and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.3934%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, 0.2227%, 0.4407%, 0.3111%, and 0.5993%.
All in, looks like near-term weakness within consolidation.
Bill
In aggregate, looks like continued consolidation with near-term weakness replacing the near-term strengthening suggested yesterday and the prior days. The re-trace I expected several days back looks like it is finally here. However, volume fell and that suggests that today's move lower lacks strength. I think we are rolling over ATM and would expect a few days of continued price weakness with falling volume before we try to challenge $1.54 again.
Today's intra-day broke the recent flattish trend, but only by a little bit. After opening at $1.52 it went sideways at mostly low/no-volume $1.51/2 through 10:22, dropped to $1.50 on 10:23's ~27K to begin a mostly low/no-volume sideways $1.50/1 with a rising, by fractional pennies, low until 11:07's 12.6K pushed to $1.52. Then a low/no-volume $1.51/2, again with lows rising by fractional pennies, occurred through 12:43. Then we saw extremely low/no-volume $1.52 occurred through 13:39. A higher-volume pop up to $1.52/3 on 13:40's ~18K put trading into a low/no-volume $1.51/2 through 13:57, a mostly high/medium-volume $1.51/3 through 14:13, and then a very low/no-volume $1.51/2 through 15:58.
15:59-16:00 ruined a somewhat reasonable day by dropping into the $1.50 area and closing at $1.50, the low of the day established in the opening moments of trading.
The b/a behavior was more normal today with little sign of the apparently hidden inexhaustible supply of offers at any price level. We actually saw small, medium and large imbalances to the sell side that changed with some reasonable consistency with what happened in the market. I think that's good regardless that it did produce a raging bull trading pattern.
The buy percentage also moved much more normally, which means of course that we wouldn't see a flat at a high price day. I don't really mind - much better to see consistency of behavior supported by metrics than things that leave me wondering what's going on.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:22 opened the day with a 951 unknown for $1.52. Then came 9:32's 1K $1.52, 9:33's b/a of 7.2K:300 $1.51/2, 9:35's 4.2K $1.52, 9:36's 1.4K $1.52->$1.51 (300), 9:37's 4.5K $1.52->$1.5150->$1.52, 9:38's b/a of 7K:2.1K $1.51/2, 9:39's 16.4K $1.5101->$1.52->$1.51->$1.52, 9:40's b/a of 1.4K:3.2K $1.51/2, and 9:43's 150 $1.51. Then began very low/no-volume $1.51/2.
B/a at 9:45 was 2.3K:3.5K $1.51/2, 9:56 1.3K:4K $1.51/2, 10:10's 4.9K:3.4K $1.50/2, 10:16's 800:3.3K $1.51/2. 10:22's 100 $1.52 ended the period.
10:23-11:06 had initial b/a 800:23.4K $1.51/2 and began very low/no-volume $1.5001/$1.51 on 10:24's ~27K (incl 10.8K $1.51 blk trd) $1.51->$1.52->$1.51->$1.50. B/a at 10:27 was 2.7K:2.1K $1.50/1, 10:46 4.6K:1K $1.50/1, 11:00 5.2K:600 $1.50/1, 11:05 4.5K:100 $1.50/1. 11:06's 1K $1.5010 ended the period.
11:07-13:32 began very low/no-volume $1.51/$1.5150 on 11:07's 12.6K $1.51->$1.52->$1.51. B/a at 11:13 was 500:2.8K $1.51/2, 11:27 3.9K:2.8K $1.51/2, 11:46 2.6K:3.9K $1.51/2. 11:54 expanded range to $1.51/2 and most trades began going at $1.52. B/a at 11:55 was 3.4K:3.8K $1.51/2, 12:30 3.5K:4.5K $1.51/2, 12:44 3.4K:4.5K $1.51/2, 12:57 4K:4.1K $1.51/2, 13:24 3.7K:3.6K $1.51/2. 13:32's 119 $1.52 ended the period.
13:33-14:09, after seven no-trades minutes, through 13:58 did low/no-volume $1.51/3 and through 14:13 did mixed high/medium-volume (mostly). All this began on 13:40-:43's ~28.6K $1.52->$1.5250->$1.52->$1.53->$1.52->$1.5201->$1.5250->$1.53->$1.5250. 13:52's b/a was 5K:1.2K $1.51/2, 13:58's 4.8K:1.7K $1.51/2. Volume was interrupted by 13:59's 25.1K (incl 25K $1.52 blk trd) $1.52. B/a at 14:03 was 4.1K:2K $1.51/2. 14:09's 100 $1.53 ended the period.
14:10-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.51/2 on 14:10's 4.1K $1.52. B/a at 14:20 was 5.8K:1K $1.51/2, 14:49 7.7K:100 $1.51/2, 14:55 5.6K:2.9K $1.51/2, 15:17 4.1K:13.2K $1.51/2, 15:23 4.4K:13.1K $1.51/2, 15:40 5K:13.3K $1.51/2, 15:55 2.9K:13K $1.51/2, 15:57 8.9K:13.4K $1.51/2. The period and day ended on 15:59's ~10.7K $1.51->$1.5199->$1.51->$1.50 and 16:00's 200 $1.50.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 4 4K+) totaling 106,948, 44.30% of day's volume, with a $1.5178 VWAP. For the day's trade volume, the count is not extremely out of line but the percentage of day's volume is excessive. The VWAP being above the day's $1.5164 combined with a buy percentage down in the mid-4x% range (see below) suggests some (likely?) non-retail participants decided today was a good exit point. Notice in the following though that a couple "larger larger trades" constitute about a third of the larger trades volume and skewed the results.
Note today's buy percentage changed from recent behavior and was not strong and relatively flat. This correlated well with the intra-day VWAP behavior. Apparently "Elvis has left the building".Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:22 32361 $1.5100 $1.5200 $48,981.84 $1.5136 13.41% 19.04%
11:06 39740 $1.5000 $1.5200 $59,974.84 $1.5092 16.46% 44.16% Incl 10:24 $1.5100 8,500 10,800 6,490
10:28 $1.5099 4,200
13:32 30917 $1.5100 $1.5200 $46,779.30 $1.5131 12.81% 34.98% Incl 11:34 $1.5150 4,800
14:09 87359 $1.5150 $1.5300 $132,919.70 $1.5215 36.19% 45.11% Incl 13:40 $1.5200 8,100 13:43 $1.5299 9,458
13:59 $1.5200 25,000
14:05 $1.5199 4,200 $1.5200 10,000
16:00 49736 $1.5000 $1.5200 $75,439.68 $1.5168 20.60% 47.89% Incl 14:12 $1.5199 4,500 14:13 $1.5199 5,000
15:59 $1.5199 5,900
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Thank goodness that volume was down on a day with a lower low, high and close, not to mention VWAP (see below). That suggests not strength (yet?) in the move to weakness.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% -1.31% -0.65% -1.96% -30.13%
Prior 1.33% 1.33% -0.65% 0.66% 81.30%
On my minimal chart yesterday we finally got above $1.52 and challenged $1.54 but failed to penetrate it and I said { ... I still think we will do so. } With the volume lower on a down day there's still that possibility. However, the prior challenge resulted in a penetration for five days before the re-trace started and ATM we have a lower high for this leg up. This makes me think we've started another roll over to do a leg down, which I had been expecting to come a few days prior. Combined with the intra-day behavior now returning to a more normal M.O. I believe the near-term will finally produce the small re-trace I had been expecting.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band seems to support this is the upper limit went from flat to falling while the lower limit went from flat to rising, but at a lower rate than the upper limit is falling. This moves the mid-point lower and suggests we'll be moving lower to meet or go below it.
This all goes counter to yesterday's { Anyway, higher open, low, high and close along with challenging $1.54 again on strong rising volume suggests we'll get through $1.54 tomorrow. Then all we need is confirmation the following day. ... What all that means to me is we should soon exit short-term consolidation to the up side. }
An obvious fail there unless "soon" comes into play with another push up instead of going in the direction currently suggested on this chart. Again, the falling volume offers that possibility but I would expect at least a couple consecutive days of weakening in both price and volume before that would happen.
On my one-year chart the 10-SMA weakened slightly while the 20-day is still rising. The 50-day is almost flat. If our range holds here, unexpected by me, the 10-day will fall another four days and the 20-day will rise another three days. The 50-day would fall one day, go flat for a day and then continue rising.
Repeating, I don't expect range to hold static though.
The oscillators I watch, which all improved yesterday, today all weakened and full stochastic exited overbought. RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), momentum and full stochastic are still slightly above neutral. The others are below neutral. This is suggesting more near-term weakness I think.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4452 and $1.5533 ($1.4426 and $1.5635 yesterday) are converging with a falling mid-point.
All in, only the falling volume offers hope we won't continue to see near-term weakness. Everything else suggests a near-term increasing weakness.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions. The short percentage is near the low end of what I think is normal (needs re-check) and the buy percentage is in what has been a normal range for this symbol for a long time. That reading has given both up and down moves and sans some coordination with short percentage and other factors doesn't offer much guidance. We need those 50%+ readings to see sustained appreciation.
The spread widened but is still in a range that I think suggests consolidation - price may continue to weaken but right now it looks like it's suggesting moves within normal consolidation behavior.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again held steady at 9 negatives and 15 positives. Change since 07/14 is $0.1311, 9.47% and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.3934%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, 0.2227%, 0.4407%, 0.3111%, and 0.5993%.
All in, looks like near-term weakness within consolidation.
Bill
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