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Re: SilkRoad post# 111103

Monday, 08/15/2016 12:29:38 PM

Monday, August 15, 2016 12:29:38 PM

Post# of 277943

at the appropriate time, a reverse split will get us out of the pennies and then onto an exchange.


I agree, though i hope the PPS will be high enough by then to ensure the pps hit done by the reverse split will be mitigated by the increased interest in the stock. I believe that only commercialization and profitability will accomplish this, so it probably won't happen for a couple years assuming Kim is waiting for that.

I think we should take what Bolt Threads and Spiber say seriously, but also skeptically and with a grain of mulberry wood dust. Until they have some third party peer review I don't believe anything they say.


I agree that any projection or future looking statement should be viewed with some reasonable amount of skepticism, but that should not mean that you discount what they say altogether, especially when looking at the companies historically meeting said milestones. In the past, Spiber has been reluctant to state their milestones to meet, but has met the ones they did state in a timely enough manner, so I am more likely to trust what they say. Bolt Threads seems to push back milestones and sensationalize what they do accomplish, so I am viewing their statements with more skepticism than Spiber. KBLB has been notorious for twisting words, writing misleading statements, and sensationalizing, so I have to really read into what they claim and the exact wording they use. KBLB technically doesn't lie in their statements, but the words they use are very deceptive in how they are presented, so I view them with a lot more skepticism than the other companies. Despite that, i do feel that they will do well once they finally do hit commercialization assuming all quality and consistency issues are fixed.

Regarding peer reviews, Bolt Threads had some from their old efforts to use salmonella as a platform, but they have moved away from that since then. Spiber has one (HERE), but the details are behind a paywall and I don't want to shell out the money to view it. Patent applications are a pretty good official indicator IMO, though Spiber's applications that I have seen with properties are fairly dated. Also, the fact that companies are willing to shell out tens of millions of dollars to work with their proteins I think is a good indication that they have something worth working with. Spiber has stated before that they are planning on releasing the properties of their fibers at full commercialization, likely sometime in 2017, so I expect to see that as well as the properties of the Bolt Threads fibers when they finally have products available.

I have yet to see any peer reviews or even patents for the properties of the Dragon Silk threads or KBLB's new silk. A PR stated that they did file a patent application for it, so hopefully it will hit public domain soon because I am eager to see it.

I just don't see the same high quality networking. Patagonia North Face okay.


Spiber has financial backing from the Japanese government, partnership with Kojima Industries, and a partnership with Goldwin, The North Face Japan's manufacturer. They also have had many, many private financial backers and a lot of public interest in Japan. You might not see that making the news outside of their country, but their initial target market is Japan, anyway, so it will likely be a several years and a lot more infrastructure to support global operations.

Bolt Threads is working with Unifi and Patagonia, is financially backed by Foundation Capital, and has also worked with many leading minds in spider silk such as David Kaplan and Cheryl Hayashi. They had been sponsored in the past by the National Science Foundation, earning a grant back when they were working with salmonella and they were called Refactored Materials, but they have moved on to transgenic yeast since then. I know that they did work closely with the 2015 UCLA iGEM team in their effort to make spider silk proteins (which won gold), and the students that worked with them had only good things to say. Since they do tend to market mostly towards sustainability and sensationalize a bit while pushing back their commercialization milestone, i don't think they are quite as far along as Spiber is, especially since they havent yet produced their first metric ton. Despite that, I do think that they will do well and will likely end up doing a limited commercial run of some Patagonia clothing, likely sold at a loss similar to what Spiber is doing sometime next year in order to increase public interest.

These shoot packs are going to tell us a LOT once they are tested. I am wondering if they will be pure 100% DS or is this the "fabric" collaboration with WM? Could it be they are weaving it with Kevlar or both?


I completely agree there. From what I gather, the shot packs will be developed by Warwick Mills, so I have full confidence in Charlie Howland's ability to find the best way to weave this silk in with other threads as needed to produce the best properties for ballistic protection. He has proven himself in the past, so if Dragon Silk is a fiber that is worth working with, then Charlie Howland can find a way to fully utilize it's capabilities.
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