Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTNP)

[Doctor Detroit]

All they are saying is, at this time, they value Titan at $12 a share. Granted, they are not describing the home run that I would like to see, but frankly given where Titan is at right now I would take it.

Remember that no one punishes an analyst for underestimating how well a company will perform (they just raise their target price), but they can get in big trouble with clients for inflated future projections. There is an institutional bias towards conservatism which is probably appropriate.

Breaking down the numbers, Zacks is calling for $9.4 million in probuphine sales in 2016 which means about 1,900 treatments, $97.3 million in sales in 2017 which means about 19,800 treatments, and $154.8 in sales in 2017 which means about 31,500 treatments.

Today, 2,342 health care providers are certified. So Zacks is estimating only 81% of those currently certified will prescribe a treatment by year end. Obviously conservative, but what is their incentive to speculate higher?

By January 2017, 4,000 health care providers will be certified. So for 2017, Zacks is estimating the average certified provider will prescribe around 4-5 treatments a year. Again, this seems low (especially if a large percentage of patients opt to have a second or third implant).

By 2018, Braeburn's goal is to have 6,000 providers certified. The 31,500 treatments again averages out to around 5 treatments per certified provider.

Even more conservative when you factor in the analysis excludes: sales milestone payments ($165 million potential, but we don't know the trigger points), potential sales of probuphine in Canada, the effect of a probuhpine sNDA for chronic pain, the increased inherent value from initiating Phase I and Phase III Pro Neura trials for ropinirole and T3 and ROW licensing deals for probuphine.