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[junewong]

Hobdair |
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Thanks for your input Les. I believe in being conservative. I don't think one can ever count on a blockbuster--it sometimes just happens. Believe me as a LONG I am rooting for a blockbuster.
I just believe in non-overhyping and in truth. The idea that giving someone vitamin D is malpractice--well that just couldn't go unchallenged. Rayaldee's competition is the current standard which is cheapo vitamin D. I agree the other drugs are generally for more advanced stages, are expensive, and have lots of toxicity issues.
Anyway I think people that repeatedly display unbridled enthusiasm without nuanced and considered statements and who clearly regard shorts as enemies rather than folks with a different point of view, give pause to the investor and the potential investor reading here, rather than confidence.
So when I suggest Rayaldee MIGHT be a $1B revenue generator rather than $6B, and I'm STILL long, while acknowledging some short arguments and refuting others, I think the impartial observer considering an investment will have a better sense he/she are not hearing one side of the story...
Tell me about Five Prime...
16 May 2016, 11:08 PM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like

JeffJr
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@hobdair Correct me if I'm wrong. Doesn't CKD prevent the body from properly processing Vitamin D? That's why when using "too much" Vitamin D can cause the litany of issues mentioned in previous posts.
I think Vitamin D is the lesser of evils scenario right now. Either give them Vitamin D and monitor their levels for all known issues, or let the CKD progress into higher stages.
The reason people seem to "over hype" this is it makes too much sense for doctors not to use it.
My personal estimate is a $3-4 billion revenue generator. The amount of time to get there, I don't know and will no longer try to guess. I would hope by 2020 they'd be well on their way to full "possible" saturation.
17 May 2016, 10:13 AM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like

LesMartin2
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Hobdair,
I share your disdain for the price of medications. But I would not characterize Rayaldee as elcheapo. When representing Seroquel (Blockbuster) we were required to do dinner programs and at expensive restaurants to get attendance. It riled me that I then was asked to do a return on investment (cost of dinner and outrageous speaker fees). I wrote that since I didn't know the cost of the pill it would be difficult to ascertain a ROI, but assuming the cost was 25 cents, the program would be successful if only the speaker prescribed one more script. My district manger went ballistic with my report. Unfortunately for me, I took cost accounting in college.
My point is that the vast majority of the drugs could fall into that camp. Nexium (purple pill) should be considered the purple haze. The vast amount of money spent on trying to differentiate itself from other competitors was in itself ludicrous. Yes, I know cyp2c9 and cyp3a4 is processed a little differently in the liver and works slightly better for Asians. But the amount of money spent to market the drug is outrageous and it still cost a dime to make.
Regarding Five Prime, they have a library of extracelluar proteins and have a unique screening process. All of their (cancer) drugs are in phase one development (high risk of getting to market). I purchased the stock because I happened to get a glimpse in screening small molecules (while at training with Beringer Ingelheim US headquarter) looking at millions of combinations.
One would need patience, but they will not need to go to the markets for cash. I would want you and User to take a small stake as I don't have either one of your intellects. I welcome your cynicism and Users optimism. I urge both of you to go to their website and look at their investor presentations.
17 May 2016, 02:40 PM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like

Hobdair
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Les I think you are misunderstanding me:
-Vit D is el-cheapo.
-25-OH Vit D is el-cheapo
-Extended release 25-OH Vit D (RAYALDEE) is NOT el-cheapo. we think it will cost maybe $2,000-5,000/year
Nexium: We doctors view all proton pump inhibitors as essentially interchangeable, just as we viewed the statins as basically interchangeable, despite much advertising and "Medical education" on the part of Big Pharma. I started taking Omeprazole when it first came out--then as others came out I just went with whichever one was covered by my insurance or which was cheaper over the counter...
17 May 2016, 11:30 PM Report Abuse Reply 1 Like

Hobdair
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Yes CKD prevents proper processing of 25-OH Vit D to Calcitriol.
It's pretty complicated actually:
dietary Vit D is processed by the liver to 25-OH vit D, and 25-OH vit D is processed by the kidneys to calcitriol.
Replacing Calcitriol directly has problems, and giving Non-extended-release 25-OH Vit D doesn't seem to work as well. Giving unprocessed dietary Vit D doesn't really have such problems but is not really that effective--yes in the stuff Userxxx3636 linked there is *suggestion* that overdosing vit D *may* cause problems, but really not well established, and giving plain dietary Vit D is still recommended.
It's really interesting that giving *modified release* (slow and extended) 25-OH Vit D (RAYALDEE) seems to get around the problems and be more effective as it seems the steadiness and continuity of availability increases conversion to calcitriol despite kidney problems *without* triggering negative feedback loops.
So RAYALDEE does seem to be better than all other forms. That's why I'm long on this company. But to say it has *no* competition I think is overstating the case--the competition is in fact plain dietary Vit D supplementation, which admittedly works relatively poorly, but there is long experience with it and it is cheap. Those things make for some competition.
17 May 2016, 11:38 PM Report Abuse Reply 0 Like