Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures

* August 6, 2016

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 2, 2016. Change is week-over-week.

Crude oil: Forced to fight for market share, Saudi Arabia cut prices for Arab Light crude sold to Asia by the most in 10 months. Iran’s production has gone up 25 percent this year, and aims to reach four million barrels per day by year-end. Iraq last month exported a record amount of crude. Here in the U.S., rigs are going up. Markets are once again beginning to worry about oversupply.

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude lost 24 percent in a little less than two months through Wednesday before responding to weekly U.S. data with a 3.3-percent rally, followed by a 2.7-percent rise on Thursday.

The EIA data showed that in the week ended last Friday U.S. crude inventory continued to rise, by 1.4 million barrels to 522.5 million barrels. Stocks are now down 20.8 million barrels from the April 29th high of 543.4 million barrels, which was the highest since the all-time high 545.2 million barrels in October 1929.

Distillate stocks rose 1.2 million barrels to 153.2 million barrels – a 12-week high.

Crude imports rose 301,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million b/d – the highest since October 19, 2012.

On Wednesday, markets instead decided to focus on gasoline stocks, which dropped 3.3 million barrels to 238.2 million barrels – a six-week low.

Crude production dropped, too, by 55,000 b/d, to 8.5 mb/d. Production is down big since peaking at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.

Refinery utilization rose nine-tenths of a point to 93.3 percent – a 35-week high.

Spot WTI remains oversold, particularly on the daily chart. If oil bulls put their foot down and push it higher, the area of interest remains $42.50-$43/barrel support, which was broken during the latest sell-off. Then comes the declining 50-day moving average ($46.56), which approximates a falling trend-line resistance from the June 9th high.

Currently net long 275.3k, up 706.



http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-55/

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