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Re: box927 post# 451

Wednesday, 08/02/2006 9:48:39 PM

Wednesday, August 02, 2006 9:48:39 PM

Post# of 14330
box, it is frustrating that those feasibility numbers always use a very low price of gold, so it is difficult to figure out what the company is really worth given $650 gold or higher.

I do my best to estimate the discounted value of future expected earnings, and I give GBN a discounted future P/E around 13. This is a little higer than before because the Hollister production seems to have dropped from 193k to 150k ounces per year, and the cash costs have increased from $123 to $213 per ounce.

Still, this P/E is low, and I think a fair value would put it at almost double. That would put the stock around $3.50 to $4. Of course, once these stocks get moving, they tend to over shoot, so I would not be surprised to see a stock price above $5 some time in the next few years. And if the price of gold continues to go up, which I think it will, I do not think $7.50 is unreasonable.

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