Mostly: Classical

[ItsAllCyclical]

>> As for NG IAC I see many potential outcomes and would hesitate to feel so safe, a nice gain thus far why not take it and reallocate, I would hope you are not increasing % portfolio exposure based upon fales sense of safety here. You realize that if you had cashed in recently you would have made better gains in most every other miner since. It is stuck until the next chapter, can you predict that chapter well enough? Are you willing to pay time value to wait. MY NG money has been working elsewhere. <<

I've been relatively high cash over the past 6 months so even w/an overweight position it's not like I'm hurting for cash - yet. If that changes and something looks very compelling then I may sell NG. I think there are three likely scenarios here:

1) ABX takes away bid - for now. No other buyer shows up. Stock price may drop back to 14-15 range, but NG survives.

2) ABX buys just Donlin for somewhere around 1 bil and PSM shares. NG shares probably would trade anywhere from 16-18 on the low side to 22-24+ on the high side as they would have all cash they need to develop Galore.

3) ABX ups offer or another buyer comes thru w/price around 20+.

I really don't mind any of these scenarios. For the most part I just have my original shares. If it gets to sub 16 again I may add again. I did buy a small amount of Sept 17.5 calls in one account for .35 so don't mind if they don't hit.

I'm already 7 months in for LT gains. If the right buyer emerges I'll probably continue to hold LT. Probably not as interested in holding ABX, but may hedge my position if ABX bids higher because as it stands currently NG unrealized gains represent half my total realized gains for the year and I'm really tired of not even being able to deduct my kids on my taxes. That's the plan.

As for ABX bid...

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Basic_Materials/Gold_and_Silver/threadview?m=tm&bn=24339&t...