Sunday, July 17, 2016 2:09:53 PM
Since this seems lobbed in my general direction, I’m happy to take a swing at it. I’ve never been one to believe in wholesale naked shorting, but I have seen solid evidence of manipulative trading tactics, both for and against this stock, ever since I’ve followed it. I have done my best to take advantage of it when I can. But you’ll be searching a long time in my posts to find any that profess what the market will do, because I could care less about the market. In my posts, I explain the tech and related science. I profess my confidence in management to utilize the tech to build a company with a solid foundation and great revenue potential. I constantly caution against those looking to reap great rewards without organic growth. I have never professed to be “market savvy,” but I am happy to profess that I sit here today, with confidence, because I have taken the time to understand not only ELTP tech but also every other tech. I have posted that information continuously. I understand the science, and the science allows me to act rationally while the market acts irrationally.
Now as for what the “professional market types” know, well unless there is rampant fraud with illegal leaked information, then let me be the first to say, the market doesn’t know squat until it happens. The “market types” are all individual entities approaching an upcoming event with an algorithm that suits their particular situation. A trader's algorithm includes preservation of trading capital at all costs. Lose the capital, lose the ability to trade. They are extremely risk-averse, and with ELTP they are in a very risky neighborhood. They make risk decisions minute-by-minute, second-by-second. As a long-term investor, I have the luxury (curse) of seeing my capital go up & down, without any concern at all for what “market types” think, other than their ability to calculate a PE ratio at some point in the future. The strategy is to be patient with a good value investment. I make risk decisions over months and years, not seconds and minutes. And that’s it; there is no supernatural force in the market. It’s just millions of entities managing their risk. There was no special fore-knowledge of last week’s events at any time by the market or by “market types.” This is what the volatility was all about. It is okay to believe otherwise, and I do not begrudge anyone their right to worship any sort of irrational supernatural being.
For a trader who sold at .38, the high-risk algorithm worked perfectly in a high-risk coin flip. Very good for them, as this validates their “capital preservation above all” strategy. But spare us the “Come To The Markets” proselytizing. They got lucky on this coin flip because of the X Factor in everyone’s algorithm, “You never know what the FDA will do.” It could have just as easily been heads instead of tails, and then their high risk algorithm would have cost them a ton of money.
Does anyone believe stock charting is based on science? To believe so is to believe that past prices predict future prices, which is really a delusional way of thinking. Voo doo. Actually, there is a science to it, but the science is the psychology of the trader class and nothing more. If trader’s didn’t operate with herd psychology, nobody would even bother to look at a past chart. I assume lots have figured out ways to nibble their share on both the ups & downs, probably mostly making their living off newby yokuls who have not yet figured out how to nibble without getting nibbled. They have not yet developed their high-risk algorithms. Not for me, I have a day job.
I’m very happy to continue on in my blind devotion to the science, without even a tiny consideration of what clueless “market types” think would make me “market savvy.” There will be many coin flips ahead before I plan on cashing in these chips. I know only one thing for sure about all of those future coin flips- the market don’t know crap.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
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