Thursday, July 14, 2016 8:40:35 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 07/13 2016 EOD
Well, both the conventional and my unconventional TA suggest, at best, continued consolidation. Only the very low volume suggests a break, per Bulkowski's observation. My "mild bullish" modification to the consolidation scenario is now removed - it looks like we got that over the last week or so and indications of that continuing are missing right now.
There was a First C-1000S Sale in Europe PR today.
Yesterday, regarding the larger trades, I noted { ... but the largest sizes are somewhat small for a bullish scenario, as is the number of those largest sizes ... } and then in the summary at the top of yesterday's post { In aggregate, this makes me think there will be no three-day window off the positive catalyst. See comments about the larger trades. }
Today seems to support the above, especially in light of the second decent order PR in three days. But it doesn't change my overall take ...
Today was open low, immediately hit the day's high (9:32 $1.40), drop to $1.38 by 9:45, and do a little low-volume $1.39/40 10:03 - 10:35. Then do $1.38/9 a few minutes until 10:51-10:53 does ~14.9K taking price to the day's low of $1.35. By 11:19 price started sideways $1.37/8, on very low/no-volume of course, until the day ended in that same range on 15:59's and 16:00's 200 each for $1.37.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:17 opened the day with a 4K sell for $1.36 and 950 more for $1.36, followed by 9:32's 200 $1.40, 9:34's 550 $1.3852/$1.3999 (50), 9:37's 1K $1.3767, and b/a went 2.8K:14.1K $1.37/40. 9:41's 100 $1.40 was followed by 9:42's 50 $1.3722, 9:45's 205 $1.3754, 9:50's 1.1K $1.3792/$1.39, 9:51's 1K $1.39/$1.3999 (2), and 9:52 b/a went 9:3K:18.2K $1.38/40. 9:52-10:02 had no trades. 10:00 had b/a at 9.2K:13.7K $1.38/40, and 10:03 did ~2K $1.3852, 10:04 988 $1.3956, and 10:08 b/a was 1K:~15K $1.39/40. 10:09 did 900 $1.40, 10:10 200 $1.3950/$1.40, 10:14 ~1.4K $1.3910, and 10:17 100 $1.30 ended the period.
10:18-10:51, after twelve no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.38.9. 10:24 b/a was 1.8K:~14K $1.39/40. Then came 10:31's 1.8K $1.39 and b/a went 8.9K:3.5K $1.38/9. B/a at 10:51 was 7.3K:3.4K $1.38/9 and 10:51's 150 $1.3827 ended the period.
10:52-11:21, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 after dropping on 10:53's ~7.5K $1.38->$1.37->$1.36->$1.38 and 11:01's ~7.4K $1.3666->$1.36->$1.37->$1.35->$1.37. Low volume was interrupted by 11:12-:13's ~5.1K $1.3693->$1.36->$1.37. At 11:03 b/a was 100:1.2K $1.36/7, 11:09 100:1.5K $1.36/7. 11:20-:21's ~3.3K $1.37/$1.3701 ended the period.
11:22-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.37/8 after doing a move up on 11:23's 200 $1.38. Volume was interrupted by 11:30's 5K $1.3773/$1.38 and 11:36-:38's ~7.5K $1.37/8. At 11:31 b/a was 1.6K:2.3K $1.37/8, 11:45 5.5K:2K $1.37/8, 11:59 3.7K:1.3K $1.37/8, 12:33 5.4K:3.8K $1.37/8. 12:30-:44 and 12:46-13:00 had no trades. 13:00 b/a was 6K:4K $1.37/8, 13:21 7.2K:3.9K $1.37/8, 13:52 7.3K:3.6K $1.37/8, 14:43 7.8K:2.6K $1.37/8, 14:55 7.5K:2K $1.37/8, 15:40 5K:2K $1.37/8, 15:44 3.4K:1.2K $1.37/8, and 15:55 3K:400 $1.37/8. The period and day ended on 15:59's and 16:00's sell 200 each for $1.37.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were two larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 9,800, 11.51% of day's volume, with a $1.3759 VWAP. The counts, sizes and percent of day's volume are even worse than yesterdays, even considering the volume, and unfortunately fits what I noted yesterday. See today's summary at the top.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the significant thing in conventional TA is the close below the short-term descending resistance (descending green line). Recall that he had closed right on it, that not being a breakout. Today leaves us still waiting and wondering if it's going to be a sideways consolidation out of the descending triangle or the break up I've been expecting will ever occur. We broke the { ... four day trend of higher lows, but for one flat day ... } behavior by making a lower low. We also closed a penny lower, just below the descending resistance, while holding a flat top at $1.40.
All this was on the lowest volume since 7/7's ~91K, the only good thing since it suggests no strength in the down move. It also fits with Bulkowski's statement that volume gets extremely low just prior to a breakout. We have been in that condition for some time now, so something ought to happen soon if he's correct.
On my one-year chart the 20 and 50-day SMAs continue declining and we again saw a small tick up in the 10-day. If we don't close >= $1.38 the 10-day will go flat or fall, depending on how low this close is. If we close above the 10-day will rise another day or two, depending on the close going forward. If we hold here the 20-day will get a small bump up for one day but then likely fall again unless we get a big bump up soon. The 50-day will continue declining for some time yet.
The oscillators I watch, yesterday all flipped to improving except accumulation, which went flat, all weakened today but for full stochastic, which continued rising. MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral and the rest are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2787 and $1.4305 ($1.2765 and $1.4389 yesterday), continue converging with both moving towards the mid-point, which is slowly declining. Our trading range is barely above that.
All in, considering the lack of market response to the PRs, I think what we are seeing is predominately just the MMs' bots doing their scalping. If that's the case, little confidence can be had in any conventional TA. Having said that, TA does suggest continued consolidation. If we get a break above the medium-term descending resistance it could change as chart watchers finally get a definitive signal that we could go challenge the next resistance, about $1.54. That's not a big range up but it's enough to make it worthwhile for folks that accumulate in the $1.3x area to garner some worthwhile profits. Another effect might be for those momentum publications to take note and issue an alert, drawing in the momo crowd. I would expect their price target would be closer to $1.99 (as at Stockconsultant.com) rather than my $1.69, which IIRC was what I had identified in the past.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and buy percentage made a rather healthy drop below the good reading seen yesterday, returning to trend. The short percentage is right at the top of my preferred range (needs re-check).
The spread continues in a very reasonable range, which I think suggests no real likelihood of substantial near-term weakness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings remain positive at eleven negatives and thirteen positives. Change since 06/08 is -$0.1247, -8.31%.
All in, no near-term big change is suggested but nothing argues against continued consolidation. The "mild bullish" suggestions have faded (I guess we got the "mild bullish" effect in the "grind up" that began subsequent to 7/6?).
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Well, both the conventional and my unconventional TA suggest, at best, continued consolidation. Only the very low volume suggests a break, per Bulkowski's observation. My "mild bullish" modification to the consolidation scenario is now removed - it looks like we got that over the last week or so and indications of that continuing are missing right now.
There was a First C-1000S Sale in Europe PR today.
Yesterday, regarding the larger trades, I noted { ... but the largest sizes are somewhat small for a bullish scenario, as is the number of those largest sizes ... } and then in the summary at the top of yesterday's post { In aggregate, this makes me think there will be no three-day window off the positive catalyst. See comments about the larger trades. }
Today seems to support the above, especially in light of the second decent order PR in three days. But it doesn't change my overall take ...
Today was open low, immediately hit the day's high (9:32 $1.40), drop to $1.38 by 9:45, and do a little low-volume $1.39/40 10:03 - 10:35. Then do $1.38/9 a few minutes until 10:51-10:53 does ~14.9K taking price to the day's low of $1.35. By 11:19 price started sideways $1.37/8, on very low/no-volume of course, until the day ended in that same range on 15:59's and 16:00's 200 each for $1.37.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:17 opened the day with a 4K sell for $1.36 and 950 more for $1.36, followed by 9:32's 200 $1.40, 9:34's 550 $1.3852/$1.3999 (50), 9:37's 1K $1.3767, and b/a went 2.8K:14.1K $1.37/40. 9:41's 100 $1.40 was followed by 9:42's 50 $1.3722, 9:45's 205 $1.3754, 9:50's 1.1K $1.3792/$1.39, 9:51's 1K $1.39/$1.3999 (2), and 9:52 b/a went 9:3K:18.2K $1.38/40. 9:52-10:02 had no trades. 10:00 had b/a at 9.2K:13.7K $1.38/40, and 10:03 did ~2K $1.3852, 10:04 988 $1.3956, and 10:08 b/a was 1K:~15K $1.39/40. 10:09 did 900 $1.40, 10:10 200 $1.3950/$1.40, 10:14 ~1.4K $1.3910, and 10:17 100 $1.30 ended the period.
10:18-10:51, after twelve no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.38.9. 10:24 b/a was 1.8K:~14K $1.39/40. Then came 10:31's 1.8K $1.39 and b/a went 8.9K:3.5K $1.38/9. B/a at 10:51 was 7.3K:3.4K $1.38/9 and 10:51's 150 $1.3827 ended the period.
10:52-11:21, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.36/7 after dropping on 10:53's ~7.5K $1.38->$1.37->$1.36->$1.38 and 11:01's ~7.4K $1.3666->$1.36->$1.37->$1.35->$1.37. Low volume was interrupted by 11:12-:13's ~5.1K $1.3693->$1.36->$1.37. At 11:03 b/a was 100:1.2K $1.36/7, 11:09 100:1.5K $1.36/7. 11:20-:21's ~3.3K $1.37/$1.3701 ended the period.
11:22-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.37/8 after doing a move up on 11:23's 200 $1.38. Volume was interrupted by 11:30's 5K $1.3773/$1.38 and 11:36-:38's ~7.5K $1.37/8. At 11:31 b/a was 1.6K:2.3K $1.37/8, 11:45 5.5K:2K $1.37/8, 11:59 3.7K:1.3K $1.37/8, 12:33 5.4K:3.8K $1.37/8. 12:30-:44 and 12:46-13:00 had no trades. 13:00 b/a was 6K:4K $1.37/8, 13:21 7.2K:3.9K $1.37/8, 13:52 7.3K:3.6K $1.37/8, 14:43 7.8K:2.6K $1.37/8, 14:55 7.5K:2K $1.37/8, 15:40 5K:2K $1.37/8, 15:44 3.4K:1.2K $1.37/8, and 15:55 3K:400 $1.37/8. The period and day ended on 15:59's and 16:00's sell 200 each for $1.37.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were two larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 9,800, 11.51% of day's volume, with a $1.3759 VWAP. The counts, sizes and percent of day's volume are even worse than yesterdays, even considering the volume, and unfortunately fits what I noted yesterday. See today's summary at the top.
As mentioned above, the concern about yesterday's larger blocks seems to have been warranted. I should have given that consideration greater weight.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:17 14427 $1.3600 $1.4000 $19,889.55 $1.3786 16.95% 26.45%
10:51 4350 $1.3800 $1.3900 $6,026.41 $1.3854 5.11% 20.32%
11:21 24153 $1.3500 $1.3800 $33,101.09 $1.3705 28.37% 36.45% Incl 10:53 $1.3800 5,800 11:01 $1.3700 4,000
16:00 41484 $1.3700 $1.3800 $57,059.56 $1.3755 48.73% 41.94%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
I guess this, and the larger trades, demonstrate just how apathetic the market is about PRs of relatively significant activities - more BPC orders and debt pay-down. The market (i.e. in our case likely just the MM bots), AFAICT, just did what it wanted, as reflected in my analysis (subject to my interpretation errors and doubts), and validated my prior { ... there will be no three-day window off the positive catalyst. }__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.73% -0.74% 0.00% -0.72% -69.79%
Prior 2.24% 1.49% 2.19% 2.99% 55.67%
On my minimal chart the significant thing in conventional TA is the close below the short-term descending resistance (descending green line). Recall that he had closed right on it, that not being a breakout. Today leaves us still waiting and wondering if it's going to be a sideways consolidation out of the descending triangle or the break up I've been expecting will ever occur. We broke the { ... four day trend of higher lows, but for one flat day ... } behavior by making a lower low. We also closed a penny lower, just below the descending resistance, while holding a flat top at $1.40.
All this was on the lowest volume since 7/7's ~91K, the only good thing since it suggests no strength in the down move. It also fits with Bulkowski's statement that volume gets extremely low just prior to a breakout. We have been in that condition for some time now, so something ought to happen soon if he's correct.
On my one-year chart the 20 and 50-day SMAs continue declining and we again saw a small tick up in the 10-day. If we don't close >= $1.38 the 10-day will go flat or fall, depending on how low this close is. If we close above the 10-day will rise another day or two, depending on the close going forward. If we hold here the 20-day will get a small bump up for one day but then likely fall again unless we get a big bump up soon. The 50-day will continue declining for some time yet.
The oscillators I watch, yesterday all flipped to improving except accumulation, which went flat, all weakened today but for full stochastic, which continued rising. MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic are above neutral and the rest are below neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2787 and $1.4305 ($1.2765 and $1.4389 yesterday), continue converging with both moving towards the mid-point, which is slowly declining. Our trading range is barely above that.
All in, considering the lack of market response to the PRs, I think what we are seeing is predominately just the MMs' bots doing their scalping. If that's the case, little confidence can be had in any conventional TA. Having said that, TA does suggest continued consolidation. If we get a break above the medium-term descending resistance it could change as chart watchers finally get a definitive signal that we could go challenge the next resistance, about $1.54. That's not a big range up but it's enough to make it worthwhile for folks that accumulate in the $1.3x area to garner some worthwhile profits. Another effect might be for those momentum publications to take note and issue an alert, drawing in the momo crowd. I would expect their price target would be closer to $1.99 (as at Stockconsultant.com) rather than my $1.69, which IIRC was what I had identified in the past.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions, not good, and buy percentage made a rather healthy drop below the good reading seen yesterday, returning to trend. The short percentage is right at the top of my preferred range (needs re-check).
The spread continues in a very reasonable range, which I think suggests no real likelihood of substantial near-term weakness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings remain positive at eleven negatives and thirteen positives. Change since 06/08 is -$0.1247, -8.31%.
All in, no near-term big change is suggested but nothing argues against continued consolidation. The "mild bullish" suggestions have faded (I guess we got the "mild bullish" effect in the "grind up" that began subsequent to 7/6?).
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
