Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[WeeZuhl]

Let's approach it differently...

4000 docs x 10 Rx's/week x 52 weeks x 20 pills/Rx= 41,600,000 tablets of SequestOx per year. Let's say a conservative $5/pill, that would be revenue >$200,000,000/yr just from 10% of ER docs writing 10 scripts/week.

I think $5/pill would be downright cheap for SequestOx. Oxaydo is $124 for 21 tablets with coupon (http://www.goodrx.com/oxaydo?drug-name=oxaydo), which is $5.90 per pill for a drug without ADF label. Realistically, more than $5/pill is possible. But I don't like the math at $5/pill for primary care. A typical thing to do for a PCP who Rx's IR opioids would be to give #100 per month, with refill if necessary in 1 month. At $5 x 100 = $500/month. Generic would be around $20/month. Even if insurance covers at a good tier, the total amount is what counts for Medicare plans, even supplements, and this will result in pushing all these patients into their drug cost donut-hole and pissing them off royally when they start paying $500/month cash for what used to cost $20. Also, primary care docs are an inherently cost-conscious group and $20 --> $500 is not going to fly in the risk-benefit smell test. But what if Nasrat were to very aggressively price SequestOx in an effort to target not just ER docs but also the primary care docs that write prescriptions for a #100 tablets at a time instead of just #20. Remember, primary care doctors prescribe a gigantic majority of the ER/LA opioids. Lead with SequestOx, and then when docs are comfortable with SequestOx, they will be more like to utilize ELTP ER opioids ELI-201 and ELI-216.


So let's say a crazy aggressive low-price of $1/pill. I think primary care docs would be much more likely to adopt at this level. I have a modestly-sized practice and there are 4 people I give #100 oxyIR/month, but I am stingy. Some of my partners have many, many more (much to the chagrin of the rest of us, when those docs go on vacation or are inevitably not there on Friday afternoon when the entire world checks their Percocet stash). We'll say an average practice has 5 patients receiving #100/month. There are more than 400,000 PCP's, and if we have 10% adopters then 40,000 docs x 500 pills/month x 12 months x $1/pill = $240,000,000 just from 10% of PCP's writing five scripts per month.


No matter how he prices it, I believe it will support multiple dollar PPS. But I personally am hopeful for a very aggressive price for SequestOx- a price that will allow any doctor to prescribe without concern for cost being prohibitive.