The Big Picture: State-By-State Marijuana Ballot Initiative Update
cannabis vote
By John Schroyer
This year could prove a turning point for the legal cannabis industry, with at least 15 potential ballot measures in 12 states that could go before voters in November.
If some or most are approved, that could translate into untold business opportunities for cannabis entrepreneurs across the nation.
At of now, the ballot initiative picture isn’t entirely clear. Some initiatives have earned a spot on their state ballots. Many are still in the works, and some remain a question mark as to whether supporters can gather enough signatures to qualify to be voted on.
Here’s an update on where the campaigns nationwide stand as of June 22.
States Where MJ Will Definitely be on the Ballot
Florida
•Initiative: Amendment 2, by United for Care (supported by millionaire attorney John Morgan)
•What it would do: Amend the state constitution to legalize a broader medical marijuana system than the one already in place.
•Number of signatures needed: 683,149
•Number of valid signatures submitted: 716,270
•Key business highlights: The initiative would legalize one of the largest medical marijuana systems in the country and establish an enormous market, perhaps including out-of-state residents looking to enter the industry. The legislature would have to write many of the regulatory details if the measure wins. But the potential patient pool is in the hundreds of thousands.
•Latest polling: 69% of voters support Amendment 2, according to a May study by Gravis Marketing. But the campaign faces a big hurdle to win, because Florida law requires a 60% supermajority to pass a constitutional amendment.
Maine
•Initiative: The Marijuana Legalization Act, by the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol (run by the Marijuana Policy Project)
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 61,123
•Number of valid signatures submitted: 62,848
•Key business highlights: Maine could be one of the first states to license “marijuana social clubs,” which would be allowed under the initiative. Such business models have been attempted in states such as Colorado – with little to no success – although Alaska has been working on a similar licensing system for lounges.
•Latest polling: Two March polls found majority support for legalizing recreational cannabis, with the Maine People’s Resource Center pegging support at 54% and a Critical Insights tracking poll putting it at 55% support.
medical marijuana in nevadaNevada
•Initiative: Question 2, by the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol (run by the Marijuana Policy Project)
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 101,666
•Number of signatures submitted: Approximately 200,000
•Key business highlights: A limited number of retail business licenses would be available, and for the first year and a half of the licensing process only existing MMJ companies in Nevada would be allowed to apply. But the measure contains no residency requirement, meaning out-of-state owners and/or investors could play a big role in the Nevada industry’s development.
•Latest polling: 60% of voters back the initiative, according to a March poll by Ralston Reports.
States Where Campaigns Have Submitted Petitions and are Waiting for Approval
Arkansas
This is one of the few states where more than one legalization campaign is underway. If both make the ballot here and voters approve them, the one with the most yes votes would supersede the other. One campaign has already submitted signatures, another is still circulating petitions.
•Initiative: The 2016 Arkansas Medical Cannabis, by Arkansans for Compassionate Care
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize medical marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 67,887
•Number of signatures submitted: 117,469
•Key dates: Signatures were submitted June 21, and the state has 30 days to rule on whether or not the campaign collected enough to make the ballot. If at least 75% of signatures are valid, the campaign would have another 30 days to gather what’s needed.
•Key business highlights: Allows for up to 38 dispensaries across the state. The state could increase that to ensure patient access. Or the number could fall if local governments that choose to ban MMJ businesses. All dispensaries would be nonprofits. However, the patient pool could be sizable given the immense list of specific qualifying conditions, which range from asthma to intractable pain and post-traumatic stress disorder.
•Latest polling: A November poll found 68% of Arkansas voters support legalizing medical marijuana.
California
•Initiative: The Adult Use of Marijuana Act, by Let’s Get it Right CA (supported by billionaire Sean Parker)
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 365,880
•Number of signatures submitted: More than 600,000
•Key dates: All counties in the state must complete a random sampling of the signatures by June 30.
•Key business highlights: The initiative would establish a colossal 19 different business licenses, including 13 differing cultivation permits depending on size and whether an operation is indoor or outdoor. The regulations are intended to build on the medical marijuana industry rules the state approved last year. Licensing would begin around the same time, in January 2018. Anti-monopoly provisions in the initiative are designed to protect smaller operators, so big corporations can’t corner the market.
•Latest polling: 60% of voters support legalizing recreational marijuana, according to a May poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.
massachusetts marijuanaMassachusetts
•Initiative: The Regulation and Taxation of Marijuana Act, by the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol (run by the Marijuana Policy Project)
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: Initially, 64,750 by Dec. 2, 2015, and another 10,792 by June 22
•Number of signatures submitted: 70,739 in December and then an additional 25,000 in June
•Key dates: The campaign had to hand in 10,792 signatures to local officials where those signatures were collected by June 22 for verification, and then the full petitions to the secretary of state by July 6.
•Key business highlights: The initiative doesn’t have a residency requirement or a long-term numerical cap on permits. But local governments could establish such limits. The measure would give existing medical cannabis dispensaries the first crack at rec licenses. If 75 dispensaries are licensed by October 2017 (173 dispensary applications had been filed by June 2016), the next round of businesses would have to wait at least a year before applying, and new cultivators would have to wait until October 2019 to apply for business permits.
•Latest polling: According to a May poll by Suffolk University and the Boston Globe, 46% of voters oppose the initiative and 43% support it.
Missouri
•Initiative: No title, by New Approach Missouri
•What it would do: Amend the state constitution to legalize medical marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 157,788
•Number of signatures submitted: Approximately 260,000
•Key dates: The secretary of state must either certify the initiative for the ballot or reject it by Aug. 9.
•Key business highlights: The initiative has a residency requirement for plant-touching companies, and allows the state and counties to cap the number of businesses. There’s also a limit to how many licenses a single company could hold, though vertical integration would be an option. The patient pool could be sizable, because the MMJ qualifying condition list is extensive, and includes permissive language that would allow for a physician to recommend cannabis for a wide range of ailments. The permitting process would start as soon as mid-March 2017.
•Latest polling: Support for the amendment is at 59%, according to a May poll by Missouri Scout Political Intelligence and Analysis.
Michigan
•Initiative: The Michigan Marijuana Legalization, Regulation and Economic Stimulus Act, by MILegalize.
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 252,523
•Number of signatures submitted: Approximately 354,000
•Key dates: On June 7, the state Bureau of Elections declared that the campaign was approximately 106,000 signatures short. MILegalize filed suit, which means the initiative may still make the ballot.
•Key business highlights: Michigan would be the first state to leave the regulation of a new rec industry completely to local governments, without any state-level oversight. All licensing would be done through local governments, which could ban cannabis companies or regulate them. Local governments also would be in charge of determining any license caps, and the licensing process would have to begin by June 1, 2017. The initiative doesn’t have a residency requirement.
•Latest polling: 53% of voters support the initiative to legalize recreational marijuana, according to a March poll by EPIC-MRA.
Montana
Montana is another state where multiple initiatives could make the ballot, including one to ban all marijuana and one to roll back an anti-dispensary ruling from the state Supreme Court.
•Initiative: I-182, by the Montana Cannabis Industry Association
•What it would do: Amend state statute to essentially legalize MMJ dispensaries by overturning a 2011 law passed by the state legislature that was upheld in February by the Montana Supreme Court. That law limits medical cannabis providers to three patients apiece, effectively regulating dispensaries out of business.
•Number of signatures needed: 24,175
•Number of signatures submitted: More than 40,000
•Key dates: Signatures were submitted to the secretary of state on June 17, and county officials have until July 15 to certify the petitions.
•Key business highlights: The measure is largely designed to give cover to existing dispensaries in Montana, but many of them will be forced to close by the end of this August. That could provide an opening for new industry entrants (though there is a residency requirement). But even if the market remains dominated by longtime players, the initiative would provide new legal stability for the MMJ industry. There’s no set limit on how many business licenses could be issued.
•Latest polling: There hasn’t been any recent polling reported on marijuana (either rec or medical) in Montana, but voters in the state originally legalized medical cannabis in 2004 by a 62% to 38% margin.
States Where Campaigns Are Still Gathering Signatures
arizona medical cannabisArizona
•Initiative: The Regulation and Taxation of Marijuana Act, by the Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol (run by the Marijuana Policy Project)
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 150,642 (A campaign spokesman said in May it had surpassed that number.)
•Key dates: The campaign must submit its signatures to the secretary of state by July 7.
•Key business highlights: The rec system would be tilted in favor of existing medical businesses. They would be grandfathered into the adult-use market and get first crack at rec licenses. And, by law, they would enjoy an advantage over would-be newcomers. For example, current MMJ dispensaries, which already must be vertically integrated, would automatically have the authority to grow unlimited amounts of adult-use cannabis, while new market entrants would first have to prove their viability on a smaller scale before being granted the right to grow more plants. Also, only about 147 rec licenses would be permitted.
•Latest polling: An April poll found that just 43% of voters support the measure, while 49% oppose it. The poll was paid for by legalization opponents.
Arkansas
(Unlike the state’s previously noted campaign, this one is continuing to gather signatures.)
•Initiative: Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment, by attorney David Couch
•What it would do: Amend the state constitution to legalize medical marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 84,859 (Couch said he and supporters had collected about 50,000 as of June 21.)
•Key dates: Signatures are due to the secretary of state by July 8; the deadline for the agency to certify or reject a measure is August 25.
•Key business highlights: The amendment would allow for eight cultivation facilities statewide, and the state Medical Marijuana Commission would determine the owners. That has opponents worried that it could turn into a pay-to-play system, and that politics would quickly corrupt it. The same commission would issue between 20 and 40 dispensary licenses. And the proposed amendment includes anti-monopoly language, so that a single company or individual could not own more than one dispensary and grow operation. For-profit businesses would also be permitted.
Image of North Dakota medical marijuanaNorth Dakota
This is the last state with potentially competing campaigns, with one trying to legalize medical cannabis and the other attempting to legalize adult use.
•Initiative: North Dakota Legalization of Marijuana Initiative, by a committee chaired by Eric Olson
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize recreational marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 13,452
•Key dates: Signatures are due to the secretary of state by July 11.
•Key business highlights: The unorthodox initiative would prevent the state from requiring any kind of license to grow, possess, use and distribute cannabis. In effect, it would make marijuana a completely legal plant. For potential businesses, there would be no residency requirements, no numerical license caps, no testing mandates, no packaging or labeling restrictions, and no industry rules.
•Latest polling: A 2014 poll by the University of North Dakota College of Business and Public Administration found that 47% of voters at the time supported legalizing medical cannabis, with 41% opposed and 9% neutral. The same study found that 68% of voters opposed legalizing rec.
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•Initiative: North Dakota Compassionate Care Act, by a committee chaired by Ray Morgan
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize medical marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 13,452
•Key dates: Signatures are due to the secretary of state by July 11.
•Key business highlights: All dispensaries would have to be vertically integrated not-for-profit models, and inventory would be limited to 1,000 growing plants and 3,500 ounces (218.75 pounds) of “usable” marijuana at any given point. The measure contains a residency requirement, but no cap on the number of dispensaries that may be permitted.
Oklahoma
•Initiative: State Question 788, by Oklahomans for Health
•What it would do: Change state statute to legalize medical marijuana.
•Number of signatures needed: 65,987
•Key dates: Signatures are due to the secretary of state by Aug. 11.
•Key business highlights: The initiative would prohibit vertical integration and establish four key business license types: dispensaries, growers, processors (infused-product makers) and transporters. The measure doesn’t contain numerical license caps, but any businesses would have to be at least 75% owned by Oklahoma residents. The entire system would have to be up and running quickly: The measure calls for the state to make business license applications available within 30 days of the law’s passage, and then to either grant or reject submitted applications within two weeks.
•Latest polling: A 2013 Sooner Poll found that 71% of voters would have supported a proposed 2014 ballot measure to legalize medical cannabis.
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