Bausch Health Companies Inc (BHC)

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ACKMAN....STILL A BILLIONAIRE BUT

not if he keeps doing silly things like holding a long in free fall and holding a short that is out performing the market and its group (HLF)

Distinguishing luck from skill in the performance of a portfolio manager is extremely difficult under the best of conditions. This point is made very clear by Michael Mauboussin's The Success Equation. It's especially difficult with a strategy like Ackman's that takes a limited number of concentrated positions. Certainly the fund's performance since inception in late 2003 has been exceptional, with a return of over 20%). However when the major contributors to those returns have been from a relatively small number of relatively large positions, discerning skill (alpha) from luck is nearly impossible.

Combine that with stubbornness in the face of adversity and the balance tips in favor of luck. It's unclear if Ackman is smarter than anyone here, and I am excluding myself from that pissing contest.

In the field of portfolio management having billions does not necessarily imply brilliance. It has to do the the degree of randomness in outcomes. In contrast having great success in fields such as mathematics or music is strongly linked with brilliance because of the relatively subdued role of luck. If this makes no sense reading Mauboussin's book is a must. Your post suggest you are too easily impressed by money where randomness plays such a large role.

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