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Tuesday, July 22, 2003 12:30:32 PM
Re: “Wouldn't it be to Q's advantage if China didn't choose 3G this year?”
Qualcomm benefits the sooner 3G networks are commercially viable. Qualcomm will receive royalties on both CDMA2000 and WCDMA, and no doubt TD-SCDMA. Qualcomm’s chipset market share should be larger with CDMA2000 than WCDMA, but the jury is still out on that. Qualcomm has stated their target to be at least 50% of the WCDMA chipset market.
Qualcomm will begin to receive revenue from the MSM6300 dual mode (GSM/GPRS- CDMA2000) chipset next year as handsets using that chipset can operate on the Unicom GSM network even before GSM1X is installed. Their GSM subs will then be able to access the CDMA network for 3G 1X services. The GSM1X overlay onto their GSM networks will give the added benefit of almost doubling voice capacity plus increased coverage of CDMA 1X on the portions of their GSM network that has been upgraded.
FA00 believes 3 to 5 of China’s 3G carriers will choose CDMA2000 and that CDMA in the rural areas using 450mhz will be huge.
If the decision had to be made today, with the Ev-Do experience in Korea proving to be very successful and the still many unresolved WCMDA issues, CDMA2000 would have to be the choice based on merit. The longer WCDMA continues to experience difficulties, the more likely CDMA2000 becomes the choice. With Unicom’s 1X network now operational, competition will mount for the other carriers to offer 3G services. This is not the case in Europe, as FA00 pointed out, as there is no competition in Europe to force the carriers to move sooner to 3G.
My feeling at this point is the sooner the 3G licenses are awarded, the better it is for Qualcomm and its investors. Qualcomm wins in either case.
Jmho- jim
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