Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[kechuwa3]

Which brings up another topic. Wouldn't it be to Q's advantage if China didn't choose 3G this year? If GSM1X becomes first to market early next year it will kill any WCDMA competitor, it seems to me we'd be better off if China Netcom, Mobile, etc. had this info in hand before they choose which system (1X, W, or TD [too bad GPRS and Edge]). Most of all it might be best for MII before they made their decision.

I guess I don't think GSM1X success matters much for CT and CN since they don't have GSM installed already. It does matter for China Mobile's decision, but if anyone goes WCDMA rather than CDMA2000 it would probably be them. GSM1X matters for Unicom but they are already the ones exploring it.

I tend to think that the sooner 3G is announced the better since CDMA2000 is known to be successful and all the doubts are about the WCDMA track. If it is is "sooner" it almost has to be CDMA2000 for either CT or CN or both. If it is later, it is possible that WCDMA could have some viability, unless of course by waiting, the problems of WCDMA become more apparent. But keep in mind, as CT and CN wait, Unicom is getting a stronger and stronger foothold in data with CDMA1x. So CT and CN can't wait too long or the window of opportunity to get a viable mobile position will be lost for them.