You can add 10,000 MT per year after 2017. They say they will build 10,000 MT every 7 months but I would use 12 months to be conservative.
I already calculated what the MF should be worth today, namely $24/share. Let's fast forward to 2021 and see what we come up with, using the Swede's approach and Intrinsic Value = EPS * 1.5G.
EPS (2020) = 35,000 MT * $5,000 / 23M * 25% spin = $1.90
EPS (2027) = 105,000 MT * $5,000 / 23M * 25% spin = $5.70
Now we can calculate the average growth rate
1.90 * x^7 = 5.70
x = 1.17
G = 17%
Intrinsic Value = EPS * 1.5G = 1.90 * 1.5 * 17 = $48.45
Versus the $41 that The Swede used (for the 25% spinoff)
If we use the official Formula it's even higher.
Intrinsic Value = EPS * (8.5+ 2G) = $80.75
So the conclusion is, yes 50,000 MT is too optimistic.
But a P/E of 15 is way too conservative if you grow 17% on average for the next 7 years. And by 2021 with a senior listing in Norway, you will get a higher valuation.
And the Mega Farm should be worth 2x $48.45/share if we include the other 25% held through SIAF stock.
