Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Oil Have we Reached the Next Turning Point?
By Martin Armstrong

* June 6, 2016




COMMENT: MA,

Someone said they sold the euro at 116 with a stop loss at 11705 and sold gold at 1305 with a stop above last year’s high. They earn a lot. But they not mention that your crude oil forecast is also correct!
Feb 28, 2016
A daily closing above $33.60 on Monday will be a warning that we may yet see a rally to everyone’s shock and dismay.
Mar 17, 2016
close March above the February high of 34.69, then we have a shot of more than a one-month knee-jerk reaction high. Then we can look for a possible three-month rally into May. The two primary targets are at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for a rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.
Now it is the end of May, and reach $49, will the rise trend continous? And is the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area will it be a typo of 59-60?
Thanks
C.Y.



REPLY: Oil is playing out within the scope of everything. We elected the two Weekly Bullish Reversals we had in the $45 level the week of May 9th. Our first target for the reaction high was June and we have two Panic Cycles for April and May back-to-back. After June, we see September. Yes we warned with the February closing that everything held on our numbers which was implying a rally was coming in the wind. In March, we elected the Weekly Bullish at 38.40. That is when we warned the next target would be 45-49: “The two primary targets are at the $45 and $49 level. That has to be exceeded to hope for a rally to reach the formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70 area.”
The numbers are always the numbers. They will beat my personal opinion every time. You simply move from one to the next. We have just witnessed gold do the same thing with our 1206 number. It crashed last week after elected the Weekly Bearish at 1225 the week before falling to 1201. But it held the Bearish Reversal. Whenever this happens the market is telling you something. So what will not go down, goes back up and vice versa. There are way too many markets for me to be commenting on all the time. I am looking to unleash Socrates and begin to fade into the sunset. It takes a computer to track everything and correlate the entire world. Humans are incapable to monitoring that much and computer models people sell are FLAT MODELS, meaning they analyze each market in isolation. That may work for a while, but they always blow up because they can never see the wildcard coming from outside that market.



As we approach June, we must respect that May was a perfect 3 month reaction. It also exceeded $50 slightly, but failed to closing above the Monthly Bullish in the $49 level. Therefore, caution is now advisable. If the market wanted to continue a bullish rally, it was right there and should have closed above our number, but it did not. Therefore, we should be on guard for a reversal of fortune. Yes, you can still exceed the May high and suck in more people. But that may not be sustain. So now we must refocus of the bearish reversals beneath the market. For now, a weekly close below 4320 will signal a decline is developing. However, a weekly closing below $46 may produce the same result if we make a new high in the coming week of June 6th. And by the way, it was not a typo. The formidable resistance zone in the $69-$70. But that will take a continued rally into September. Without a monthly closing above even one Monthly Bullish here, that does not become likely.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/energy/oil-have-we-reached-the-next-turning-point/

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