Biotech Values

[ghmm]

AUPH:

I am 1 of the 6 and am long in real life too. Obviously I feel the odds of success in the Phase 2 are pretty good. Just to balance and give some of the negative things to think about:
1) Their balance sheet is quite weak. They are literally running on fumes to get to the Phase 2 readout in August.
2) I doubt this trial will satisfy regulatory requirements for 1 of 2 confirmatory trials because the duration seems too short compared to other Lupus trials. The company is also continuing out to 48 weeks.
3) The AURION data while encouraging don't really tell us much since its quite small and all it really does is show results in short duration (so far).
4) Lupus is quite a heterogenous disease so some patients nephritis will resolve without drug.

I haven't decided if the recent management changes are good or bad and the delay in raising funds (debt or equity) is just new management needing time to get something done or holding out for results. If the results are positive its natural to think they sell out to someone to run the Phase 3/take it to market. I thought it would make a good target for BMRN (they dabbled in Lupus with Riquent when La Jallo was a different company). Their recent plans to initiate a Japanese study made me wonder if they have a potential Japanese partner interested. If successful in Phase 2 I would be quite happy with them partnering to raise some capital and running the Phase 3's on their own and taking it to market.