Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc (TTNP)

[Doctor Detroit]

Sales Forecast

Given Braeburn's stated goal of training 2,000 health care providers by mid-July, and 4,000 by year end, I have come up with the following estimate of the # of trained health care providers at the beginning of each month the remainder of this year:

July 1,200
Aug. 2,000
Sept. 2,400
Oct. 2,800
Nov 3,200
Dec. 3,600

If half of all those trained each month prescribe a singe (one) implant each month, the total number of implants prescribed in 2016 will be 7,600, for sales of $37.620 million @ $4,950 per implant. Royalty to Titan would be $6.4 million (about $5 million over Zack's estimate).

Carry that forward to the first half of 2017 with a static # of 4,000 health care providers trained. If only half of those trained prescribe only one implant per month you get $59.4 million in new sales. If 75% of those who had an implant in 2016 continue with a second implant, that's another $28.2 million in reoccurring sales. Total sales of $87.6 million with royalty to Titan of $15.3 million.