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Re: None

Friday, 07/28/2006 8:42:31 AM

Friday, July 28, 2006 8:42:31 AM

Post# of 169278
Let's put emotion aside and consider this. Everyone keeps spinning this as an all or nothing situation. Either this is a complete scam headed for zero or every single promise the company is making will come true and we're headed for $15 and above. What no one seems to grasp, is that the truth is likely in the middle. Many aspects of this deal sound fishy and overexaggerated, but many of the claims are verifiable and appear to be solid. Seems like the reverse merger is definately going to happen and CVSU likely will be able to claim a book value of around $7 per share. However, I'm guessing that many of the items used to calculate that book value will come from "questionable" businesses that will not be easily verified. But, we do know that the aerospace joint venture and the bond make up the largest portion of the book value anyway. So, conservatively, give them a book value of $4 and once CVSU begins trading, you've got a nice floor at around $4. That's still 4x the current stock price and I'll take that gain any day. Of course, a good round of PRs and some increased transparency by the company (and short covering) will likely increase that amount down the road for those willing to wait it out. The only downside risk would be if the entire reverse merger is a complete scam and the SEC halts trading. But, there are just too many high level people involved, there have been too many recorded statments by the CEO that would incriminate him, and too many legitimate filings for this to be a total scam. Worst case scenario for the long side, this opens and trades down to $2 or around half of book value. Worst scenario for the short side, this opens at $2 or higher and keeps climbing. The long side looks MUCH more attractive to me right here at $1. I originally was playing this for momentum and thought it was a scam, but now I'm convinced its for real, but just not as wonderful as the CEO is claiming. The clincher for me was the HUGE number of bashers all coming together (the coordination screams for the need to shake out shares) and the trememdously strong level two support today below $1. If this truly were a scam, there would have been absolutely no support today and we'd have continously drifted lower and would be below 50 cents right now. Obviously, several large players believed in this stock all day today and wanted in anywhere below $1. I guess we'll see what happens...


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