fant- you point out a key problem: there is NO EV analysis from anyone outside the transaction, nor can there be. We all are silent bystanders as we do NOT know what exactly is in the ISC IP vault. But we do know this: plenty of next gen. non-contact IP, plenty of follow on ETD products to current products and some unique surprises.
I am assuming that ISC has set some minimum bid criteria and has spoken with at least 2 to possibly 3 interested parties. The brain-trusts from those parties has to make very educated guesses as to WHO will dominated EDS sales in "next gen." buying period and HOW they will do that.
Smith's has already told them HOW. Smith's has paved the way for bundled sales in the Middle East. If you sell against Smith's and are NOT able to bundle, you are going to lose XXXM$/cycle...this number is driving interest in ISC, IMO.
The TAMS for ETD/EDS are sketched out so everyone knows what is in play and what they need to make that play.
I've scratched out the sidelines of where "delight" begins and I also assume that mgt. is working in their own self interest also: some mgt. options happen at $1.40 but McG. and Dr. Jones have options in .70s range also.
But even hard core LONGS with wisdom and knowledge have no real idea as to share distribution potential. None. Remember, its a secret process and ISC violating that could spike the deal...and that is NOT going to happen.
MCG gave us 4 good clues: Victory Lap, NO Forward Guidance, Future Product Tease, Payment of interest to DM for Qtr ending 6/30.
I guess this could fold in and crash but I strongly doubt that. Today's SP means nothing except a buying opportunity.
