POWFOLIO estimates (please read my notes about how and where these numbers come from so it is not misunderstood - these are ESTIMATES only):
Ranking: using formula from research paper in LINK number of iPhone downloads = 52,958*rank-(0.944) Also note, the research was 2011 and tied to the paid apps. The variance for free apps is explained in the research but you might need to be a math professor to figure it out. Please do not consider my numbers as THE numbers - it's just for conversation based on factual research for paid apps in the app store. I'm not trying to put out false info or put out bogus information. It's simply for discussion! So here it is.
using the formula above: Rank: estimated #downloads for that day 12: 5072 13: 4702 14: 4385 15: 4108 16: 3865 17: 3650 18: 3459 19: 3286 20: 3131 21: 2990 22: 2862 23: 2744 24: 2636 25: 2536 28: 2279
POWfolio has ranked 13 in app store for 5 straight days. Based on the formula (see research banking this ESTIMATE process) here is the downloads estimates:
May 25 - 29: rank 13 4702 x 5 = 23,510 May 24: rank 28 = 2279
The ranking at release was 183 (the day the app store went down!) Then it was all over the map for the next two weeks with a low on May 17th of 1493, then shot up to 126 on the 20th. Then of course hitting 28th on the 24th and then 13th on 25th and pretty much staying in that range since.
So, total downloads (ONLY IN THE UNITED STATES) for the last 6 days has been estimated to be 25,789. ESTIMATE only!!!!!
There is no way to accurately determine #downloads in the appstore, which for some people, might say, "then why the hell put these numbers out!" Conversation and if and when the numbers do get released we could see how close we were on the figures. The only two that have download information is apple and Glowdot.
To get conservative with the numbers if ranking holds downloads roughly 20k per week minimum at this point. It definitely wasn't 20k per week out the gate in the US based on rankings data, but now that it has held steady all week. It looks very good. If they hold the ranking in iOS up to comic-con that is roughly 200,000 downloads just in the U.S. by then, which equates to a minimum of $10 grand every 21 days (see stanford research above). So, if that is just the U.S. then we can definitely predict it be higher simply by knowing it is world wide and continues to be ranked globally in at least a dozen countries.
So, what do we think they have now? a good estimate globally (just my opinion) would be at least 50,000 based on appannie rankings the formula above.
Been interesting trying to figure out a rough number. Going to be really easy in comparison once Android hits because at least they give a rough amount to go by.
All in all it is a great piece to have for the REDG puzzle to get filings current (which are not going to be pretty until probably fall). But I really like have these products generating revenues going forward - much better than the past as many here have and are debating even today.
have a good rest of the holiday weekend if you are in the states and safe travels, best to everyone who follows our board, thanks, thedocg.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.