Thursday, May 26, 2016 10:10:20 AM
All thinks considered, neutral to slightly positive near-term today. I thinking a bounce possible because we honored the $1.53 support and the volume reduced on the move down from yesterday. Target if we move up is ~$1.69.
Today went opposite of what was seen the last few days - opened high, dropped to the first new low of $1.51 by 9:36, moved back up to $1.60 by 9:56, dropped to the day's low of $1.50 by 10:04, recovered to $1.58 by 10:58, and then dropped into a long flattish $1.53/6 through 14:36. 14:37-15:23 went flattish $1.56/7 and 15:24-15:41 dipped to $1.53 to start a $1.53/5 to close at $1.55. All after 10:04 was predominately (some very) low/no-volume. After another up/down pattern through ~10:50 we started doing long flattish periods, slightly higher and lower, within the $1.54/6 range until ~14:35 when the range moved up a penny. That lasted through ~15:25, after which the EOD volatility began on a drop down to $1.53/5 by 15:41 and we did mostly sideways there and closed at $1.55/
There were four pre-market trades, $1.63 x 100, $1.62 x 1.9K, x 1K, x 406.
09:30-09:36 opened the day with a 1,369 sell for $1.62 and 977 more that traded at $1.62. Next came 9:32's ~3.4K $1.63->$1.65, and 9:33-:36's ~84.9K $1.61.2->$1.61->$1.58/60->$1.57->$1.5->$1.52 ended the period.
09:37-10:48 did 9:37-:47's medium/high-volume $1.52/6, climbed on 9:48-9:56's $1.56->$1.60->$1.58, fell on 9:57-10:04's ~65.9K $1.58->$1.56/7->$1.50->$1.54/5, climbed on 9:48-9:56's $1.56->$1.60->$1.58, fell on 9:57-10:04's ~65.9K $1.58->$1.56/7->$1.54/55, did 10:05-21's low/medium-volume sideways $1.51/3, and 10:22-48's low/no-volume climb to end the period on 10:48's ~9.9K $1/55->$1.58.
10:49-12:55, after three no-trades minutes, entered a long very low/no-volume $1.54/6, after 10:52-:53's 27.8K $1.56->$1.57->$1.53, and 12:55's ~1K $1.55 ended the period.
12:57-14:31, after a no-trades minute, narrowed to $1.55/6 (interrupted by 13:23's 14.2K $1.54/5), on 12:57's ~1.6K $1.55/6, and 14:31's 200 $1.56 ended the period.
14:32-15:17, after five no-trade minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.565/$1.57 on 14:37's ~10.1K $1.56->$1.57, 14:59's 200 put the range to $1.56/7, and 15:17's 100 $1.57 ended the period.
15:18-15:43, after six no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.55/$1.5601 on 15:24's ~6.7K $1.57->$1.55 until 15:24's ~6.7K $1.57->$1.55 began 15:25-:43's ~13.3K rapid very low/no-volume drop $1.55->$1.53 to end the period.
15:44-16:00, after a no-trades minute, began very low/no-volume $1.53/4 after 15:45-:49's ~4.4K $1.53->$.5461, did 15:57-:59's ~7.2K $1.53/4->$1.55 and ended the period and day with a closing buy of 390 $1.55.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 26 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 205,258, 32.36% of day's volume, with a $1.5471 VWAP. Percentage of volume a bit higher than normal and VWAP slightly below the day's overall $1.5474.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:02 3406 $1.6200 $1.6300 $5,518.72 $1.6203 0.54% 2.94%
09:36 90653 $1.5100 $1.6500 $142,763.81 $1.5748 14.29% 12.11% Incl 09:33 $1.6100 20,557 09:34 $1.6100 5,000
09:35 $1.5799 5,000 $1.5101 4,545
09:36 $1.5500 4,800 $1.5100 6,000
10:48 295821 $1.5000 $1.5952 $454,335.95 $1.5358 46.64% 31.47% Incl 09:37 $1.5300 5,000 09:39 $1.5275 5,000
09:39 $1.5300 4,800 5,900 5,575
09:39 $1.5301 24,400 09:42 $1.5200 12,070
09:47 $1.5300 12,600 09:55 $1.5700 4,767
09:59 $1.5700 22,583 10:04 $1.5200 5,000
10:13 $1.5174 5,000 10:22 $1.5165 5,000
12:55 103174 $1.5300 $1.5700 $159,684.22 $1.5477 16.27% 29.94% Incl 10:53 $1.5300 9,770 $1.5500 5,700
11:39 $1.5550 5,000 11:47 $1.5400 4,900
12:36 $1.5400 7,000
14:31 77698 $1.5400 $1.5630 $120,624.47 $1.5525 12.25% 28.26% Incl 13:47 $1.5501 5,000
15:17 18273 $1.5600 $1.5700 $28,566.50 $1.5633 2.88% 28.93%
15:43 20858 $1.5300 $1.5685 $32,378.94 $1.5524 3.29% 29.07% Incl 15:41 $1.5500 4,291
16:00 18257 $1.5300 $1.5500 $28,117.08 $1.5401 2.88% 29.52%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { The low was right on $1.53. This occurred on the second day of very strong rising volume, suggesting more room to run higher. }__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 3.18% -1.96% -0.60% -4.32% -57.22%
Prior -0.70% 1.46% 4.90% 2.11% 70.31%
So much for the suggestion of volume, as I erroneously interpreted it! Why I didn't take my usual stance and have concern it might be large enough to suggest end of the near-term trend, I don't know. Brain glitch? Just tired of being negative so much?
Anyway, again confirming our breakout, the low penetrated below $1.53, our current support, to $1.50 but we closed at $1.55, above the support. This occurred on falling volume, suggesting the drop is not all that strong and, I think, confirming the pop involved momo and/or day traders. I suspect that those sorts exited, based on the early action, the very weak intra-day buy percentage and the long flattish periods. If so, we may see some stability around this area before some kind of move occurs again.
The next resistance, if we should try and move higher again, is $1.69/$1.70. Potential support is at $1.45/7 today, the rising lower orange line, and rises ~$0.00667/day.
On my one-year chart we are still well above the long-term descending support.
The oscillators I watch all weakened and MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic moved out of overbought. Everything is still above neutral.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.3226 and $1.6066 ($1.3227 and $1.5896 yesterday) continue diverging and dragging the mid-point higher, thanks to the upper limit rising faster than the lower is dropping. I suspect the lower limit might begin rising tomorrow.
All in, the falling volume on a down move suggests no real strength in the down move, although that does not mean we won't move lower. It does suggest that move lower would be minimal or take a long time to drop much. It also suggests a short-term consolidation is possible. I'd be looking to see VWAP stabilize.
In sum, looking for "neutral" for a day or too as most likely, with some marginal up or down likely. A bounce up is possible as we honored the support at $1.53.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and short percentage is closer to my desired range (needs re-check) and may be there if my ~15% adjustment is in error (still awaiting confirmation that ARCA is now reporting through FINRA's facility). The buy percentage tanked, as might be expected if momo and/or day traders were heavily responsible for the pop we saw. It was weak through the whole day, suggesting heavy selling by these folks. If they are exhausted, there's room to the upside.
The spread got wide and was generated by a big fall from the high open. Being not in a certain down trend, I'm again (erroneously?) going to read this as not suggesting a strong likelihood of a big down move.
VWAP movement added another negative to our trend, giving us now twelve negative moves in the last eighteen readings and six positives.
All in, nothing here suggests near-term upside. But the suggestions for downside are present but unsupported by the reduction in volume. Adding in the honoring of the $1.53 support I wind up neutral to slightly positive near-term.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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