Sphere 3D Corp. (ANY)

[Hugodrax]

Debunking the ANY "late day shorts takedown myth"

It's actully been slightly more common to have a late-day pump or high-tick in the shares.

But why believe me when you can look at data.

First, rather than looking at the closing prices, which are a millisecond in time, it helps to look at the VWAP - the volume-weighted average price over an entire day. A much better proxy for the "real" price and why it is used in takeovers, warrant pricing, financing, etc.

Over the past week, for example, here is the VWAP

5/17: $1.21
5/18: $1.28
5/19: $1.19
5/20: $1.10
5/23: $1.10

The "late day takedown" thesis is effectively an argument that the closing price is consistently below the "real" price to make it look bad.

We can actually test this mathematically. If the closing price is consistently below the VWAP, that is some evidence of low-ticking. If the closing price is consistently above, it is evidence of high ticking.

Here is the data for the past 20 days, for example:



Date VWAP Close Close vs. VWAP


2016-05-23 1.0988 1.1000 0.0012
2016-05-20 1.0945 1.0200 -0.0745
2016-05-19 1.1913 1.1600 -0.0313
2016-05-18 1.2779 1.3000 0.0221
2016-05-17 1.2093 1.2100 0.0007
2016-05-16 1.1886 1.2000 0.0114
2016-05-13 1.1381 1.1801 0.0420
2016-05-12 1.1934 1.1900 -0.0034
2016-05-11 1.1409 1.1400 -0.0009
2016-05-10 1.1433 1.1800 0.0367
2016-05-09 1.1368 1.1501 0.0133
2016-05-06 1.1526 1.1400 -0.0126
2016-05-05 1.1877 1.1600 -0.0277
2016-05-04 1.1760 1.2300 0.0540
2016-05-03 1.1914 1.2300 0.0386
2016-05-02 1.1734 1.1800 0.0066
2016-04-29 1.2147 1.1500 -0.0647
2016-04-28 1.2654 1.2500 -0.0154
2016-04-27 1.2386 1.2800 0.0414
2016-04-26 1.2286 1.2400 0.0114



Over the last 20 days, 12 of the days the closing price was higher than the VWAP - 60%

Last 30 days: 56.7%
YTD: 52%


For every May 20, where the close was 6.8% below the VWAP, there is a May 4 where the close was 4.6% above the VWAP. And the 10-day and 30-day moving averages of that are positive.

I know facts are awful in ANY land.